Do you think there will still be a bull market in the cryptocurrency circle in 2025?
Currently, BTC is in the rainbow band, and the MVRV Z-score is not yet in the red zone. The actual favorable policies for the cryptocurrency circle that may come with Trump's inauguration in January are still unknown. It is clearly still in the middle of the bull market, and it's too early to reach the peak.
ETH is currently down 30% from the last high of 4800, with a market cap dominance of only 12%, far below the average level. Moreover, in recent days, BTC has seen the largest single-day outflow from ETFs, while ETH's ETFs are still experiencing net inflows. It is evident that ETH is in a waiting phase for a rebound, and Trump's largest position, 75%, is in ETH, with a holding cost of 3600. It can be said that buying ETH at 3300 right now is a highly certain trade. Furthermore, as ETH rebounds, there is another round of altcoin season to look forward to.
On the negative side, the death cross of the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields historically has always been followed by a major recession. If the US economy can achieve a soft landing or even avoid landing, then BTC may follow a similar path to gold with an 8 to 10-year oscillation upward. However, if the unemployment rate rises and cannot withstand the Federal Reserve's re-rate cuts, along with a V-shaped reversal in the inflation rate, coupled with a black swan event coinciding with the 2026 US midterm elections, then the US stock market and cryptocurrency will experience a deep correlation. It is essential to prepare mentally, follow the market trends, and where there are declines, there will be rises. If cryptocurrency experiences a 70% correction, then in the new cycle of BTC, there will still be a significant wealth effect. The worst-case scenario is that it becomes like gold, as the current volume of funds in spot ETFs has already exceeded that of gold. If this happens, BTC may transition from marginalization to a mainstream asset, and the cryptocurrency circle will no longer be the same as it was before; past experiences may no longer be applicable.
As the year-end approaches, ETH is under pressure, and most small investors are in a state of fluctuation. Currently, there is a promising asset expected to double, with a projected increase of over 40%. Last week, the old investor provided Zen, which has already gained 50%, perfectly escaping the peak. It's the end of the year, seize the last opportunity to make money!!!
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