Some of the long positions below 93000 for Bitcoin were cleared yesterday, but the large positions were not completely cleared. If Bitcoin needs to drop below 90000, it may accelerate the decline, creating the best opportunity for bottom fishing. Regardless, the shorts above will become fuel for Bitcoin's future rise.
The bull market is definitely on, with a red heart and two hands ready!
Looking at the overall market, Bitcoin had a volume spike last night, and the market also provided more negative signals:
1. Bitcoin ETF continues to see significant net outflows.
Yesterday, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETF reached 443 million USD, the highest since December 20.
2. Continuous deterioration of market liquidity
In the past 24 hours, the supply of USDT has astonishingly decreased by 1.15 billion! Although USDC has slightly increased by 190 million during the same period, this clearly cannot fill the huge gap caused by the sharp decrease in USDT supply. Market liquidity is continuously deteriorating, and this change is undoubtedly a wake-up call.
As one of the most important stablecoins in the market, the sharp reduction in its supply means an intensification of liquidity tightness, which may affect trading activity and price stability.
3. From the relationship between volume and price, there seems to be a certain positive signal.
The trading volume decreased during the second dip below the 12.20 low, and the price quickly returned above the 12.20 low. This indicates that selling pressure weakened during the second dip.
So, there are three possible trends for Bitcoin going forward:
Scenario One: These two dips below the 12.20 low are the final shake-out of the adjustment phase. Through this shake-out, Bitcoin has completed or is close to completing its adjustment, and it is about to welcome a rise.
Scenario Two: Bitcoin has not yet completed its adjustment and will continue to fluctuate downwards, only completing the adjustment after dipping near the STH RP (±2000). Currently, the STH RP is 86650.
Scenario Three: The bull market has ended, and we are now only in the early stages of decline.
I personally believe the probability ranking of the three scenarios is: Scenario Two > Scenario One >> Scenario Three.
In terms of altcoins, the CEX market closely follows the market fluctuations, but on-chain funds are unusually active, especially in the AI sector. Regardless of how the overall market adjusts, on-chain trading seems to ignore these fluctuations, steadily leading the on-chain trend. (Opening CEX even for a second is a disrespect to this trend) In this rapidly changing market, seizing on-chain opportunities may be the key to winning.
The AI Agent sector continues to reach new highs, with the leadership of Virtual on Base and ai16z on the SOL chain, resulting in explosive growth of the relevant ecosystem, one of the important narratives for 2025.
Currently, the AI track of the Base ecosystem is rapidly heating up, but it mainly revolves around the construction of VIRTUAL. Recently, relevant ecological coins such as AIXBT, LUNA, GAME, etc., have all seen significant increases. If you are not familiar with AI Agent, you might as well experience it yourself.
On the SOL chain, the market value of AI16Z has surpassed 1.9 billion USD. As the first meme ecological project built on SOL with an industrial investment mindset, it truly stands out. Moreover, ELIZA's market value has also successfully surpassed 100 million. It is foreseeable that more institutions and project parties will join the AI16Z ecosystem in the future.
It is worth noting that if all projects within the AI16Z system can successfully migrate to the AI16Z chain, a market value of 10 billion will no longer be a dream. The future of AI has infinite possibilities.
Currently, various institutions have already established positions, and more AI targets will appear in the Ai16z ecosystem, benefiting the following targets:
1. aicell :
Ai16z on the BNB chain is basically the earliest form of ai16z.
2. kra :
Officially announced as the AI agent of ai16z, with the technical architecture of Eliza+TEE, this narrative is truly outstanding! Moreover, it is a spore co-project, and since spore has attracted the attention of ai16z, we have reason to believe it can enter the Ai16z system.
Lastly: Musk changed his nickname to Kekius Maximus and changed his profile picture to a frog (PEPE).
Amazing, Musk personally promoted Pepe, even changing his profile picture. It seems that the probability of Pepe becoming the next big thing is quite high. The meme leader of this bull market should be Pepe, which will chase after the myths created by Doge and Shib in the last bull market.
Everyone is blindly guessing how many times the token named Kekius Maximus has increased.
