Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $388 million.
On December 29, Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a highly influential trader in the cryptocurrency community, published a 2025 Q1 outlook and prediction on X, forecasting that ETH will be the best-performing mainstream token in the next quarter.
Eugene first mentioned three reasons for being bullish on ETH: technical trends; Trump's favor (especially WLF's significant purchases in the Ethereum ecosystem); and the development status of the Base ecosystem. He then reiterated that since Trump's election, the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs has undergone a 180-degree turnaround.
ETF fund movements: Is Ethereum more favored?
Eugene did not exaggerate; SoSoValue data shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, the inflow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs has increased significantly, with growth trends even surpassing those of Bitcoin spot ETFs during the same period.
As we entered late December, this trend has become even more apparent.
SoSoValue data shows that last week (Eastern Time December 23 to December 27), the net inflow into Ethereum spot ETFs was $349 million; meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $388 million — the significant difference in this fund movement may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.
As of the time of publication, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not been fully released, but according to on-chain monitoring by Lookonchain, ten U.S. Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 BTC ($275.59 million) yesterday; nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH ($54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.
Trump concept all-in-one package
In addition to ETF liquidity data, another reason supporting the positive outlook for ETH is the ongoing accumulation by the Trump family project WLFI.
In the past period, WLFI has consecutively bought multiple Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO, but the largest holding in the project remains ETH.
While this is somewhat related to WIFI being deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase 'The president is on board, what are you hesitating for?' still has a strong FOMO effect.
Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat?
Coinglass data shows that in the first quarter of the new year after historical U.S. elections and Bitcoin halving cycles, ETH performed the best, especially in the first quarters of 2017 and 2021, when ETH rose by 518% and 161%, respectively, even surpassing BTC's returns in those two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).
If history repeats itself, ETH may see significant gains in Q1 of next year.
Potential beta choices
If ETH can indeed rise as hoped, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become higher risk/reward beta choices, such as:
Trump concept token combination: AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO;
Grayscale Top 20 choices: LINK, UNI, AAVE, ENA, OP, LDO;
Potential positive expectations for ETF staking: LDO, EIGEN, RPL, SSV;
Leading AI concepts in the Ethereum ecosystem: VIRTUAL, GAME, AIXBT;
Note: The above tokens are merely examples of specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.
Counterpoint
Although several well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, have openly expressed bullish views on ETH, there are also voices that hold a pessimistic attitude towards ETH's future performance.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to perform poorly and will not reach a new historical high in the 'hawkish' macro environment of 2025: 'We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policies may be tested by weakening liquidity tailwinds.'
During this period of extreme market volatility, the predictions given by various parties are merely 'one-sided conclusions' based on their respective conditions and indicators; no one can predict the future, and everyone should remember to DYOR before taking action.
