Article reposted from: Foresight News
Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The cryptocurrency market has seen huge fluctuations this month, having first surpassed the $100,000 mark on December 5, followed by a dramatic pullback from December 9 to 10. Afterwards, the market slowly oscillated upward, just when investors thought BTC was about to break $110,000, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks dealt a heavy blow to the overheated market, leading to a bloody correction in the altcoin market led by Ethereum. As of now, some altcoins have nearly halved from their monthly peak.
Panic among cryptocurrency investors is spreading, with anxiety and unease filling the community.
Countless investors are asking: Is the bull market really over? How will the future market trend? Although the market is unpredictable, what catalysts will be present in January? Why is January's performance worth looking forward to?
1. Trump will be inaugurated on January 20.
After Trump successfully campaigned for president in early November, the market experienced a continuous rally lasting a month. Trump presented himself with a crypto-friendly stance, and most of his nominated department heads are also pro-crypto individuals. The SEC chairman, who has been criticized in the past, is also set to leave, leading the market to generally hold an optimistic view on the future of the crypto market.
Latest data shows that the new members of the upcoming parliament have a significantly higher proportion and number of supporters for cryptocurrency compared to the previous session.
According to a recent report from Reuters, Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, stated that Trump's inauguration might bring some surprises to the market, predicting that he will issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy.
The market is paying attention to Trump's every move regarding the cryptocurrency market. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may usher in its golden age.
2. FTX is about to start repaying its debts.
On December 17, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the Chapter 11 reorganization plan approved by the court will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of distribution will commence within 60 days after the effective date, targeting approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached agreements with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, FTX's first round of repayment distribution, effective January 3, includes $16 billion in cash.
Some tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have basically been sold.
The compensation received by creditors is in cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing the selling pressure in the market and increasing the probability of some of the compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thus boosting market performance.
3. Lunar New Year generally sees BTC rising.
As early as early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, stated that Bitcoin often rises by 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past 9 years, traders who bought Bitcoin 3 days before the Lunar New Year and sold it 10 days after the Lunar New Year have achieved good returns.
February 10 marks the 2024 Spring Festival, Bitcoin rose from $43,000 on February 5 to around $53,000 by February 15, and then began to rise further, reaching a peak of $72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festivals of 2021, 2022, and 2024 all fall in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 occurred at the end of January. The chart clearly shows that BTC's growth during the month of the Lunar New Year has always been over 10%, with the highest reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Spring Festival in 2025 falls on January 29, which is earlier in January compared to previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as 'October Rally', and the performance during the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.
