Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The cryptocurrency market has been highly volatile this month, experiencing a dramatic pullback after first breaking the $100,000 mark on December 5. After a slow upward oscillation, just when market investors believed BTC would break through $110,000, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hawkish remarks dealt a heavy blow to the heating market, leading to a bloody correction in the altcoin market led by Ethereum. As of now, some altcoins are nearly halved from the month's peak.
Panic among crypto investors is spreading, with anxiety and unease filling the community.
Countless investors are asking: Has the bull market really ended? What will the future market trend be? Although the market is unpredictable, what catalysts will emerge in January? Why is January's performance worth looking forward to?
1. Trump will be inaugurated as president on January 20.
After Trump's successful presidential campaign in early November, the market experienced a month-long continuous rise. Trump presented himself as crypto-friendly, and most of his nominated department heads are also supportive of the crypto market. The SEC chair, who has been widely criticized, is also set to resign, which has led the market to generally hold an optimistic view on the future of the crypto market.
Latest data shows that the proportion and number of new legislators who support crypto significantly outnumber those of the previous session.
According to the latest report from Reuters, Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, stated that Trump's inauguration may also bring some surprises to the market, as he is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy.
The market is paying close attention to Trump's every move regarding the crypto market. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may welcome its own golden era.
2. FTX is about to start repaying debts.
On December 17, FTX and its associated debtors announced that the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of distribution will start within 60 days after the effective date, only for approved creditors of the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached agreements with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, FTX's first round of repayment distribution, which will take effect on January 3, includes $16 billion in cash.
Some tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have basically been sold off.
Creditors will receive compensation in cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market sentiment.
3. BTC generally rises during the Lunar New Year.
As early as early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, indicated that Bitcoin often rises by 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past nine years, traders who bought Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sold it ten days after have achieved good returns.
February 10 is the Spring Festival in 2024, and Bitcoin rose from $43,000 on February 5 to around $53,000 on February 15, and continued to rise thereafter, reaching a peak of $72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festival in 2021, 2022, and 2024 all occurred in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 took place at the end of January. The chart clearly shows that BTC's price increase in the month of the Lunar New Year is over 10%, with the highest reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Spring Festival in 2025 falls on January 29, which is earlier than previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as 'October up,' and the performance during the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.
