2025 Crypto Market: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
The crypto market in 2024 experienced significant fluctuations, and the outlook for 2025 is highly anticipated, intertwined with opportunities and risks.
Four Scenarios
Scenario One (30 - 40% probability): Bitcoin and altcoins rise together, strategy is to buy quality altcoins on dips.
Scenario Two (50 - 60% probability): Bitcoin rises, some altcoins follow, choose quality coins to buy on dips, avoid popular coins and look for potential coins.
Scenario Three (20 - 30% probability): Bitcoin rises but altcoins fall broadly, need to sell all altcoins.
Scenario Four (10 - 20% probability): Bitcoin and altcoins fall together, indicating the market may have peaked.
Market Expectations
Bitcoin continues to rise due to favorable macro conditions and new regime attention, with gains exceeding those of 2024. Altcoins overall trend upwards, with some volatility and declines but less severe than in 2024; key to investing lies in timing and positioning, with potential for significant declines in the absence of catalysts.
Risk Factors
It's difficult to determine the peak of the cycle, continuous assessment is needed. Bitcoin reserve plans carry uncertainties, and Trump's stance is crucial. Supply risks persist, with a large concentration of Bitcoin in the hands of a few entities. Macro-wise, interest rate cuts are favorable, while rate hikes or rising inflation pose downside risks.
Investment Recommendations
Focus on application technologies in the AI field, such as ALCH; DeFi first choice AAVE, second choice stablecoins; L1 choose SUI, Hype, etc.; NFT and gaming tokens focus on Pengu, etc.; in other fields pay attention to Kaito, etc.
Market Predictions
DePIN or acquisitions may materialize; Binance may lose its position as the largest exchange; VR drives metaverse tokens; ICOs may revive; ETH chain may have a season of altcoins or none; Sui may exceed $10; Ethereum ETF staking may generate yield products; big-name artists use NFTs and tokens; Bitcoin may reach $200,000; more high-level L1 executives may resign; Base may falter, while Solana continues.
Investors need to closely monitor developments and adjust strategies according to scenarios to seize opportunities.
