This year, cryptocurrencies have undoubtedly been one of the most "bullish" investment categories: data from CoinMarketCap shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surged from $1.65 trillion at the beginning of the year to $3.7 trillion, with Bitcoin's price rising from $37,700 last December to a historical high of $106,000.
However, if history is any guide, Bitcoin may peak within the next two to three weeks, which means Bitcoin bulls may need to act quickly to lock in profits.
Could Bitcoin peak in two weeks?
According to data from research firm K33, Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in mid-January, just before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Trump.
K33's statistical analysis indicates that, on average, there are 318 days between the first peak and the last peak of cryptocurrency cycles. The initial peak of the current cycle occurred on March 5 this year, suggesting that the last peak of the current cycle may occur on January 17 next year. This date coincidentally approaches Trump's inauguration on January 20.
In fact, Trump's election victory was coincidentally a catalyst for Bitcoin's surge at the end of this year. Trump, known as the "most pro-cryptocurrency president in history," has made several promises favorable to Bitcoin—such as including Bitcoin in the national reserves—factors that helped Bitcoin's price first break the six-figure milestone.
However, K33 pointed out that as the time for Trump's actual inauguration approaches, cryptocurrency investors are likely to find their hopes dashed:
"The market is very likely to have unrealistic expectations about the pace of policy changes and overestimate the impact of the inauguration... We expect the current rally (Bitcoin) to peak in mid-January before Trump's inauguration, and believe that region is a natural area to reduce risk and realize short-term profits," wrote Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, in a December report.
Other analyses show similar results.
Another technical analyst familiar with Bitcoin's historical cycles, Adrian Zduńczyk, also shares a similar view. He has previously warned to be prepared for Bitcoin's upcoming correction. He expects the price adjustment of Bitcoin to begin between the end of January and February, with a range of 15% to 30%, before potentially resuming another bull market.
Meanwhile, another study by data statistical analysis company CCData this month also indicates that Bitcoin's price will peak next year, although they predict different timing for the correction. According to the company, Bitcoin usually peaks 371 to 546 days after the last "halving" event, which occurred in April this year.
The company wrote: "This estimate provides two scenarios: one is the baseline scenario, which expects Bitcoin to peak in early second quarter next year, and the other is the bull market scenario, which anticipates the highest price of the asset to peak in November next year."
The market still lacks bullish sentiment.
However, regardless of the outcome in January next year, many in the market remain optimistic about the trend of cryptocurrencies next year, with predictions for Bitcoin's year-end price ranging from $200,000 to $500,000, thanks to ongoing institutional adoption, loose regulations, and the macroeconomic backdrop, as well as a broad rebound across the entire cryptocurrency sector.
Even CCData, which warns of possible corrections for Bitcoin, states that under basic scenarios, they predict Bitcoin may reach $155,000. In a bull market, Bitcoin could touch $195,000.
K33 also acknowledges that as Bitcoin's market capitalization grows larger, the so-called "four-year price cycle" may gradually lose relevance.
"The relative impact of halving is becoming less significant, as Bitcoin is being adopted at the institutional level. Although Bitcoin's bubbles and declines will remain a common feature, they arise from new developments," K33 stated.