The crypto market has been volatile this month. After breaking through the $100,000 mark for the first time on December 5, it staged a thrilling retracement from December 9 to 10. Since then, the market has been slowly fluctuating upward. Just when market investors thought that BTC would break through $110,000, the hawkish speech of Federal Reserve Powell dealt a heavy blow to the heated market. The altcoin market led by Ethereum ushered in a bloody correction. As of now, the price of some altcoins is almost halved from the top of this month.
Panic spreads among crypto investors, and anxiety and uneasiness fill the community.
Countless investors are asking: Is the bull market really over? How will the market trend develop in the future? Although the market is unpredictable, what will be the catalysts in January? Why is the performance in January worth looking forward to?
1. Trump will be sworn in as president on January 20
After Trump successfully ran for president in early November, the market has been rising for a month. Trump has shown a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, and the heads of various departments he nominated are mostly pro-crypto market people. The SEC chairman, who has always been criticized, is about to leave, which makes the market generally optimistic about the future of the crypto market.
The latest data shows that the proportion and number of people who support encryption among the new term of parliament that is about to take office are significantly higher than those in the previous term.
According to the latest report from Reuters, Michael Rosen, chief investment officer of Angeles Investments, said that Trump's inauguration may also bring some surprises to the market. He is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues ranging from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policies.
The market is paying close attention to Trump's future actions on the crypto market. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may usher in its own golden age.
2. FTX is about to start repaying its debts
On December 17, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of distribution will be launched within 60 days of the effective date and will only be open to approved claim holders in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached an agreement with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset allocation services to retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, FTX included $16 billion in cash in its first round of repayment distribution, which officially took effect on January 3.
Some of the tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have basically been sold.
The compensation received by creditors is not tokens but cash, which indirectly reduces the market selling pressure and increases the probability that part of the compensation funds will flow into crypto again, thereby boosting the market.
3. BTC generally rises during the Lunar New Year
As early as early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and head of research at 10X Research, said that Bitcoin tends to rise by 11% around the Lunar New Year. In the past 9 years, traders who bought Bitcoin 3 days before the Lunar New Year and sold it 10 days after the Lunar New Year have made good profits.
February 10th is the Spring Festival of 2024. Bitcoin just rose from US$43,000 on February 5 to around US$53,000 on February 15, and then began to rise all the way, reaching a temporary high of US$72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festivals in 2021, 2022 and 2024 are all in early February, and the Spring Festival in 2023 is in late January. The above chart clearly shows that BTC has risen by more than 10% in the month of the Lunar New Year, with the highest even reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The 2025 Spring Festival will be on January 29, which is earlier than in previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as "Rising October", and the market performance during the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.
At present, the market is still volatile. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the right time. There are two support positions below, 92000-90000. The closer to 90000, the stronger the support.
The upper side is the 100,000 integer mark that was not broken through in the previous two attempts. 100,000 is the psychological price mark for most integers, and it is also the suppression position of the MA30 moving average. Therefore, the volatile market will pull back when it encounters pressure, and rebound when it encounters support.
Most of the cottage industries also rise and fall with the trend of Bitcoin, so the overall market trend depends on Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin is at a high level, funds will slowly flow into the cottage industries. What the cottage industries currently lack is a lead, a hot spot to promote, so as long as there is a hot spot to hype, the cottage industries will rise independently. Or the surge in Bitcoin will cause a chain reaction in the entire cottage industry, and most of them will rebound together.
Dabai will slowly find some hot spots of Bi and make independent Bi layouts. For example, the pond mentioned above is an independent market. If there is hot speculation or the market trend starts to heat up significantly, Dabai will share the appropriate Bi layout with them.
