Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The crypto market experienced significant volatility this month. After first breaking the $100,000 mark on December 5, it went through a dramatic retracement from December 9 to 10. After that, the market slowly fluctuated upwards, just as investors were optimistic that BTC was about to break $110,000, the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell dealt a heavy blow to the heating market, leading to a bloody correction in the altcoin market, with some altcoin prices nearly halving from this month's peak.
Panic among crypto investors spreads, anxiety and unease fill the community.
Countless investors are asking: Has the bull market really ended? What will the future market look like? Although the market is unpredictable, what catalysts will be present in January? Why is January's performance worth looking forward to?
1. Trump will be inaugurated as president on January 20.
After Trump successfully campaigned for president in early November, the market experienced a month-long continuous rise. Trump presented himself as crypto-friendly, and many of his nominated department heads are also pro-crypto figures. The SEC chairman, who has often been criticized, is also about to step down, leading the market to generally hold an optimistic view of the future of the crypto market.
The latest data shows that the proportion and number of new lawmakers who support cryptocurrency significantly outnumber those of the previous session.
According to a recent report from Reuters, Angeles Investments Chief Investment Officer Michael Rosen stated that Trump's inauguration could also bring some surprises to the market, anticipating that he will issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy.
The market is paying attention to Trump's every move regarding the crypto market. If he can fulfill his promises made during the campaign, the crypto market may usher in its own golden age.
2. FTX is about to begin repaying debts.
On December 17, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the Chapter 11 reorganization plan approved by the court will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of distribution will begin within 60 days after the effective date and is only for approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached an agreement with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, the first round of repayment distribution, effective on January 3, will include $16 billion in cash.
Some tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have basically been sold.
The compensation received by creditors is cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the probability of some of the compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market sentiment.
3. BTC generally rises during the Lunar New Year.
As early as early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, stated that Bitcoin often rises by 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past nine years, traders who bought Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sold it ten days after the start of the Lunar New Year have achieved good returns.
February 10 marks the Spring Festival in 2024, and Bitcoin rose from $43,000 on February 5 to around $53,000 by February 15, and then continued to rise, reaching a peak of $72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festivals in 2021, 2022, and 2024 all occur in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 took place at the end of January. The chart above clearly shows that the BTC price increased by over 10% during the month of the Lunar New Year, with the highest increase reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Spring Festival in 2025 falls on January 29, which is earlier than in previous years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as 'rising in October,' and the performance of the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.
