Trump's inauguration as president, FTX starting debt repayments, and historical data patterns of general rises around the Lunar New Year.
Article author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Source: Foresight News
The crypto market has seen huge fluctuations this month. After first breaking the $100,000 mark on December 5, a dramatic retracement occurred from December 9 to 10. Subsequently, the market slowly oscillated upwards. Just when investors thought BTC would break through $110,000, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks delivered a heavy blow to the warming market, leading to a bloody correction in the altcoin market, led by Ethereum. As of now, some altcoins have nearly halved from this month's peak.
Panic among crypto investors is spreading, with anxiety and unease permeating the community.
Countless investors are asking: Is the bull market really over? What will the future market look like? Although the market is unpredictable, what catalysts will come in January? Why is the performance in January worth looking forward to?
1. Trump will be inaugurated as president on January 20.
After Trump successfully campaigned for the presidency in early November, the market experienced a continuous upward trend for a month. Trump presented himself as crypto-friendly, and many of his nominated department heads are also pro-crypto figures. The SEC chairman, who has often faced criticism, is also about to step down, leading to a generally optimistic outlook for the future of the crypto market.
The latest data shows that the proportion and number of newly elected members of parliament who support crypto have significantly surpassed those of the previous term.
According to a recent report by Reuters, Michael Rosen, chief investment officer of Angeles Investments, stated that Trump's inauguration could also bring some surprises to the market. He is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy.
The market is paying attention to Trump's every move regarding the crypto market. If he can fulfill his promises made during the campaign, the crypto market may welcome its golden age.
2. FTX is about to begin repaying debts.
On December 17, FTX and its affiliated debtors announced that the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will officially take effect on January 3, 2025.
The first round of distributions will start within 60 days after the effective date and will only be available to approved creditors in the Convenience Classes. FTX has reached agreements with cryptocurrency custodian BitGo and trading platform Kraken to provide asset distribution services for retail and institutional clients.
According to data disclosed by HODL15Capital, the first round of repayment distributions effective on January 3 includes $16 billion in cash.
Some tokens previously held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have been largely sold off.
Creditors will receive cash compensation instead of tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market performance.
3. Generally, BTC rises around the Lunar New Year.
As early as early February 2024, 10X Research founder and research director Markus Thielen stated that Bitcoin often rises by 11% around the Lunar New Year. Over the past 9 years, traders who bought Bitcoin 3 days before the Lunar New Year and sold it 10 days after have achieved good returns.
February 10 is the Spring Festival in 2024. Bitcoin rose from $43,000 on February 5 to around $53,000 by February 15, and then began to rise steadily, reaching a peak of $72,000 on March 15.
The Spring Festival in 2021, 2022, and 2024 all took place in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 occurred at the end of January. The chart above clearly shows that BTC's increase during the month of the Lunar New Year has always been over 10%, with the highest reaching an astonishing 43.55%.
The Spring Festival in 2025 is on January 29, occurring earlier than in past years.
The market often has self-fulfilling prophecies, such as 'rising in October', and the performance of the market during the Lunar New Year is worth looking forward to.
