Author: Monchi | Editor: Monchi
1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data
From December 22 to December 29, 2024, Bitcoin's price movements showed certain volatility. The main changes during this period are as follows:
From December 22 to December 23: Prices fell consecutively, and market sentiment was bearish. The opening price on December 22 was $97,281.6, with a closing price of about $95,183.8, a decline of -2.13%. The trend continued downward on December 23, with an opening price of $95,184.8 and a closing price of about $94,852.1, a decline of -0.35%. Over the two days, Bitcoin fell a cumulative -2.48%, indicating bearish market sentiment and a decline in investor confidence.
From December 24 to December 25: Prices rebounded with a short-term increase. On December 24, Bitcoin experienced a rebound, with an opening price of $94,852.8, a peak of $99,446.6, and a final closing price of $98,668.1, an increase of +4.02%, marking the largest single-day gain of the week. Subsequently, on December 25, the price continued to rise slightly, with an opening price of $98,661.9 and a closing price of about $99,391.3, an increase of +0.73%. This period of increase indicates a warming of market sentiment and a restoration of investor confidence.
From December 26 to December 29: Prices fell back with minor fluctuations. Starting on December 26, the price of Bitcoin saw a significant correction, with an opening price of $99,389.4 and a closing price of about $95,777.7, a decline of -3.64%. Subsequently, the price continued to decline slightly, gradually decreasing from December 27 to 29, with a drop of -1.57% on December 27 and a closing price of about $95,076.7 on December 29, with a decline of -0.22%. Despite the significant correction, price fluctuations over the weekend were relatively stable.
Bitcoin Price Trends (2024/12/22-2024/12/29)
Influencing Factors
1. Macroeconomic Environment:
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market expects the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, weakening demand for risk assets and suppressing the continued rise of Bitcoin prices.
Dollar Index Fluctuations: The dollar strengthened during this period, increasing investor preference for safe-haven assets and leading to capital outflows from the cryptocurrency market.
2. Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior:
Increased volatility during the Christmas period: On December 24 (Christmas Eve) and 25 (Christmas Day), Bitcoin rebounded due to retail fund inflows, leading to optimistic short-term sentiment.
Short-term profit-taking: The pullback on December 26 (-3.64%) reflects that some investors chose to take profits after the rebound, leading to increased selling pressure.
3. Technical Factors:
Psychological barrier effect: Bitcoin has attempted to break through the $100,000 mark multiple times but has failed, indicating significant technical resistance.
Support Level Testing: The weekly low of $92,543.2 was close to a strong support area, triggering buying activity to prevent further price declines.
4. Policy Expectations:
Market sentiment regarding news of the U.S. government's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan for 2025 is divided, and short-term speculative sentiment has weakened.
Hash Rate Changes
The hash rate of the Bitcoin network experienced significant fluctuations from December 22 to December 29: From December 22 to 23, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network remained at a high level. From December 23 to 25, the hash rate decreased compared to the previous two days, maintaining around 750 EH/s. Starting from December 27, the hash rate slightly increased to above 800 EH/s, reaching a maximum of 876.85 EH/s. On December 28, the hash rate stabilized at around 800 EH/s.
Overall, Bitcoin's hash rate has remained at a high level throughout the week.
Hash Rate Data of the Bitcoin Network
The hash rate of Bitcoin is somewhat correlated with Bitcoin price fluctuations (as mentioned in the price analysis), indicating the sensitivity and response mechanism of miner behavior to market dynamics.
Mining Revenue
According to Blockchain.com data, on December 22, miners' income was approximately $42 million, while during the peak period in April 2024, daily income exceeded $100 million. During this period, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between approximately $92,650 and $99,700. The volatility of Bitcoin prices directly affects miners' income.
Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency
From December 22 to December 28, the mining difficulty of Bitcoin across the network remained at a high level of 108.52 T. As of the time of writing, the network's hash rate was 790.16 EH/s.
In the first half of 2024, miners enjoyed the best economic benefits in the past two years. Driven by rising Bitcoin prices, the average hash price in the first quarter of 2024 was $0.094/TH. However, with Bitcoin's fourth halving in April 2024, the block reward decreased from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins, impacting miners' income. Nevertheless, miners are addressing these challenges by improving mining efficiency and adopting new generation mining machines.
The income of Bitcoin miners is affected by Bitcoin price fluctuations and network difficulty. Energy costs remain a significant factor impacting miners' profitability. Miners are addressing these challenges by improving mining efficiency and adopting new technologies to maintain profitability.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
2. Policy and Regulation
El Salvador strengthens support for Bitcoin: Violating the International Monetary Fund agreement to purchase Bitcoin.
On December 23, news emerged that the Salvadoran government has made it clear that it will continue to promote Bitcoin as part of its economic strategy, despite having signed an agreement with the International Monetary Fund to gradually end its Bitcoin operations.
Stacy Herbert, director of the Bitcoin office in El Salvador, clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to purchase Bitcoin at an 'accelerated' pace as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained on social media that Bitcoin will remain legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs.
Russia bans cryptocurrency mining in 10 regions for six years.
On December 24, news emerged that, according to Russian news agency TASS, starting from January 1, 2025, ten regions in Russia (Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, Chechnya, Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson regions) will impose a complete ban on cryptocurrency mining for six years. The ban will last until March 15, 2031.
Russian lawmakers have also approved seasonal restrictions on major cryptocurrency mining regions to prevent power outages. These restrictions align with the cryptocurrency mining legislation signed by the president in August and October 2024.
The Bank of Italy has classified Bitcoin P2P services as 'crime-as-a-service.'
On December 24, news emerged that, according to Bitcoin Magazine's post on platform X, the Bank of Italy has classified Bitcoin P2P services as 'crime-as-a-service' due to their involvement in money laundering activities.
Japanese Prime Minister: Currently, there is a lack of sufficient information to consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
On December 27, news emerged that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that the government currently lacks sufficient information to consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Brazil are exploring similar initiatives.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China issued a report management measure targeting illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies and other high-risk transactions.
On December 27, news emerged that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China announced the release of (Interim Measures for the Management of Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Trading Reports), which has been implemented from today. (The measures) are supporting documents for the (Interim Measures for the Management of Banking Foreign Exchange Business), aimed at strengthening banks' foreign exchange risk management and early identification, early warning, and early disposal of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trades, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies.
Key points include: clarifying the reporting responsibilities for bank foreign exchange risk trading, requiring the establishment of monitoring systems and submission of reports; specifying the scope of information reporting, including activities involving illegal cross-border capital flows; clarifying the report content, such as basic circumstances and proposed measures; strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and data confidentiality management, etc.
3. Mining News
Out of 25 listed mining companies, only 7 achieved positive returns by the end of 2024.
As of December 24, Bitcoin has risen 113% in 2024. According to the Hashrate Index and Google Finance data, most listed mining companies' stock prices are in a downward trend by the end of 2024, with declines as high as 84%. Among the 25 listed mining companies in this index, only 7 achieved positive returns. As of the time of writing, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB 2) is up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) is up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%.
On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) fell by 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) which fell by 69% (just to name a few). Bitcoin miners' cumulative revenue exceeded $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com data, miners' income on December 22 was $42 million, while the peak in April exceeded $100 million.
Kyrgyzstan's cryptocurrency mining tax revenue is expected to decrease by 50% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
On December 27, news emerged that according to budget documents released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Kyrgyzstan, the contribution of cryptocurrency mining taxes for 2024 is projected to be 46.6 million som (approximately $535,000), down over 50% from 93.7 million som (over $1 million) in 2023. The mining tax rate imposed on cryptocurrency miners in the country is 10% of electricity costs, including value-added tax and sales tax. Despite Kyrgyzstan being seen as an ideal place for mining due to its abundant undeveloped renewable energy, the decline in tax revenue may be related to a decrease in mining activities. According to data from the International Energy Agency, 30% of the country's energy supply comes from hydropower, but currently only 10% of hydropower potential has been developed.
The clean energy usage rate in Bitcoin mining exceeds 56%
On December 29, news emerged that, according to data from Woocharts, the proportion of clean or sustainable energy used in mining currently stands at 56.76%. Since April 2021, the use of clean energy for BTC mining has been steadily increasing. The platform uses the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance's definition of sustainability to measure its clean energy usage, relying on the proportion of cryptocurrency mining operations powered by energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and even nuclear.
4. Bitcoin News
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed allowing the Federal Reserve to hold Bitcoin
On December 23, news emerged that U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming recently mentioned the potential of converting Bitcoin into a reserve asset and proposed how to implement the plan, including involving the Federal Reserve.
Lummis stated that she hopes to empower the Federal Reserve to purchase and hold BTC as part of a larger strategic Bitcoin reserve plan to address the national debt issue. I want to hand it over to them. I hope our federal government has a strategic Bitcoin reserve to help support the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases exceed the levels seen during the 2021 bull market.
On December 23, news emerged that according to the Saylortracker page, MicroStrategy purchased 27,200 BTC on November 10, 2024, at approximately $74,000 each. On November 17, MicroStrategy purchased another 51,780 BTC, followed by a purchase of 55,500 BTC on November 24 at approximately $97,000 each, setting a record for the largest BTC purchase ever.
During the bull market of 2020-2021, MicroStrategy's largest acquisition was the purchase of 29,646 Bitcoins on December 21, 2020, when the trading price of Bitcoin was around $21,000.
MicroStrategy acquired 5,262 BTC for approximately $561 million.
On December 23, news emerged that MicroStrategy acquired 5,262 BTC for approximately $561 million, with an average price of about $106,662 per Bitcoin, achieving a 47.4% BTC yield for the quarter to date and a 73.7% BTC yield year-to-date.
As of December 22, 2024, MicroStrategy held 444,262 BTC, valued at approximately $62,257 per Bitcoin, totaling approximately $27.7 billion.
U.S. stock company Matador Technologies plans to allocate the first $4.5 million in funds to Bitcoin in December and add Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
Real estate brokerage firm La Rosa Holdings accepts Bitcoin as a payment method
On December 24, news emerged that real estate brokerage firm La Rosa Holdings announced it would accept Bitcoin as a payment method.
Russian Finance Minister: Russia is using Bitcoin in foreign trade.
On December 25, news emerged that Russian Finance Minister: Russia is using Bitcoin in foreign trade.
Russian Finance Minister: Russian companies are currently using BTC for international trade.
On December 26, news emerged that Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that Russian companies are currently using BTC for international trade, and Putin supports this move. Due to secondary sanctions from the U.S. faced by China and Turkey, Moscow is considering using cryptocurrency as a solution. Putin openly accused the U.S. of politicizing the dollar and insisted that Bitcoin cannot be stopped.
CryptoQuant analyst: The BTC 'Kimchi Premium' has reached a local high, indicating strong demand from South Korean investors.
On December 26, news emerged that CryptoQuant analyst Joo Hyun Ryu stated that during the recent market downturn, speculative short-term holders increased their exposure to Bitcoin, particularly driven by demand from South Korea. The 'Kimchi Premium,' which measures the price gap between Korean exchanges and others, reached a local high of 5.12, indicating strong local demand. The rising interest from South Korean investors suggests an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the region, despite mixed signals from the global market.
According to previous reports, cryptocurrency investors in South Korea surpassed 15 million in November. According to data submitted by the Bank of Korea, as of the end of November, a total of 15.59 million South Koreans had accounts at the country's five major cryptocurrency exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX).
Cardone Capital launches a fund that combines real estate investment with Bitcoin purchases.
On December 27, news emerged that Cardone Capital, a real estate investment company managing $4.9 billion in assets, announced the launch of the 10X Space Coast Bitcoin Fund, which combines institutional-level real estate with Bitcoin purchases. The fund is sized at $87.5 million.
CryptoQuant founder: Trump's Bitcoin policy depends on the economic status of the U.S.
On December 29, news emerged that Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, stated that the Bitcoin policy of the elected president Donald Trump may depend on the global investment community's views on the U.S. economy and dollar strength.
Ju believes that when investors perceive a threat to U.S. economic hegemony, the prices of value-storing assets like gold and BTC will skyrocket. However, investors continue to express confidence in the U.S. economy and regard the dollar as a safe-haven currency. This advantageous position makes it unlikely that the Trump administration will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve to protect the dollar's dominant position, potentially leading the newly elected president to backtrack on policies supporting Bitcoin.
