#ATA涨势分析 #加密ETF申请热潮涌现 #GMT热度飙升 Summary of 2024

At the historic moment when Bitcoin breaks the hundred thousand mark, the lackluster performance of altcoins is commonly attributed to insufficient VC support and decentralization attributes. However, few truly notice that in this market, which still has incremental funds, the vast majority of funds actually flow into leveraged betting trades. This may be a direct consequence of the low threshold characteristics of Web3 leverage—over the past year, we have witnessed that leveraged trading in altcoins remains as active as ever in a market environment of extreme contraction in trading volume.

For some, this may seem unremarkable, but I want to remind you that every market downturn is first corrected not by the price of Bitcoin or other altcoins, but by the stock of leverage. This pattern has repeated itself over the past year, becoming a distinct yet overlooked thread in the market.

2024 can be said to witness the market moving from a phase with no anchors at all to a hell driven entirely by “illusions.” In this market, every person and every action is a counterparty. A century ago, the outstanding trader Livermore attributed his success to information asymmetry. And a century later, in a market where information asymmetry approaches zero, everyone considers themselves a modern Livermore.

Unlike the traditional commodity futures market—where there are anchored pieces of information such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro data, which are the cornerstones of trading—in the crypto market, there are no such “anchors.” Market prices are no longer tied to any objective variables but are built upon the illusion of consensus. Everyone thinks they have grasped the rhythm of the market but forgets that market fluctuations have no logic; they are merely projections of emotion.

In the face of such a market, I pay my highest respect to every “Livermore” of the 21st century. Your persistence, your belief in illusions, and your courage to chase profits in an unanchored environment are all worth remembering.

May everyone in the market in 2024 be able to see through this illusion and make their true choices.

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