The ups and downs of the market during this period have caused many coin friends to feel anxious, disappointed, and worried...
If you don't enter the market, you worry about missing out, and if you enter the market, you worry about being trapped. It's really not easy!
We looked at the market sentiment last night, which was really unbearable to watch. The Bitcoin funding rate was 0.1, the annualized lending rate of Binance was as high as 80%, and OKX was 43%. The peak of the bull market was just like this. This shows that everyone still has a high belief that Trump's inauguration next month is likely to drive the market up!
If this kind of fomo sentiment appeared in the previous bull market, Bitcoin would start at -20%. But now Bitcoin's fundamentals have changed, and we have already talked about the fundamentals. As a result, funds continue to rush to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, making it difficult for Bitcoin and Ethereum to fall further. As for whether it will fall a lot, it is still unpredictable from a short-term perspective, and there is no point in predicting the short term because the randomness is too strong. A big positive line can blow you up at any time, and a big negative line can also blow you up at any time!
In the short term, with a significant increase, it can either drop or consolidate gains through sideways movement.
During this sharp drop in Bitcoin, altcoins haven't dropped much relative to their gains. Why? This is a characteristic of the latter half of a bull market, with the rotation of funds. Many will sell their Bitcoin, but the funds won't leave the market; they will move to mainstream and altcoins. So, for those holding altcoins, be patient and wait; the altcoin season will definitely come!
Ethereum has also performed strongly during this sharp drop in Bitcoin, combined with the positive news of Trump's administration and the upgrade in Prague in March. I believe ETH/BTC still has good upside potential from a long-term perspective.
However, I don't have high hopes for the overall market in December, which is coming to an end. I'm focusing on the gains in January and February, expecting signs of a market start after New Year's Day.
The period of January and February 2025 corresponds to the months of previous bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In both of these bull markets, there were significant increases during these two months. History does not repeat itself, but it is always strikingly similar! Therefore, I personally believe that there is a high probability of a good upward trend starting in January and February!
The positive news hasn't materialized yet, and there's no reason to be pessimistic. I will continue to hold and remain bullish. Currently, the market is unstable, so the focus should be on spot trading. If one must use leverage, then a maximum of 2x to 5x is advisable; too much might be hard to bear. Steady profits will allow for further progress! Keep it up!