Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $94,000 early this morning (30th), moving away from the historical high of $108,000 set on the 17th of this month. In just two weeks, the price has fallen over 13%. Whether it can carve out a path for a rebound in a bear-dominated battlefield has become the hottest topic in the market right now.
Market analysts, including BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, have long warned that Bitcoin may experience significant corrections before setting new highs, and it now seems that these warnings are coming true. Currently, the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is gradually approaching the 50-day EMA, indicating that Bitcoin's recent momentum is weak.
Nonetheless, since October of this year, Bitcoin has still firmly held the long-term support level of the 200-day EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 42, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold, and market sentiment remains neutral.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has mainly fluctuated within the range of $92,000 to $99,000, which may be a natural correction after the rapid surge in the past two months, but the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is becoming increasingly intense.
Bearish advantage emerges, stablecoin demand rises.
The key indicator for observing the market's bullish and bearish forces—the 'Bitcoin Buy-Sell Ratio'—currently stands at 0.92. When this value is below 1, it typically indicates that the bearish forces are predominant; conversely, a value above 1 suggests that bullish forces are dominating the market.
Trading analyst 'The ForexX Mindset' recently warned investors that the market may see a larger correction, with Bitcoin potentially dropping further to $81,500. He pointed out that Tether (USDT)'s market share has been steadily rising, suggesting that investors are risk-averse and temporarily parking their funds in stablecoins to prepare for the next wave of market movements.
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar has also expressed a similar view, believing that Bitcoin may correct to around $80,000. He stated that the classic 'head and shoulders' pattern has emerged, indicating that Bitcoin may face greater pressure in the coming days to weeks.
The funding rate for perpetual contracts remains optimistic.
Despite the heavy bearish atmosphere in the market, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains positive, indicating that bullish traders are still willing to pay fees to maintain their long positions, showing that some investors still have confidence in Bitcoin's future price movements.
Looking ahead, the long-term trend of Bitcoin's price will depend on multiple factors, among which the most closely watched will be the Trump administration's regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy direction in 2025. These uncertainties have led to highly divergent predictions for Bitcoin's price.
For example, cryptocurrency mining company Blockware recently pointed out that Bitcoin's price target for next year could range between $150,000 and $400,000, reflecting the market's high uncertainty regarding Bitcoin's future trends. However, in the short term, Bitcoin may still need to find a new balance amidst fluctuations.
