Simple predictions for 2025.

1. The halving cycle of Bitcoin's fundamental logic, 2025 corresponds to 2013, 2017, and 2021.

2. Apart from the main upward wave brought by the major cycle, any fluctuations should merely follow the NASDAQ's random movements; major movements will happen a few times, and the rest will be wasted time.

*3. Whether altcoins will have a major narrative primarily depends on the intensity of Trump's rate cuts. If we follow what Powell has currently stated, then the major narrative for altcoins will likely have to wait until 2026. The hot money in 2025 will not be sufficient to support a large narrative, and we can only continuously accept smaller narratives, similar to this year.

*What is a major narrative? At the very least, it’s something you were involved in at the beginning of the year and are still involved in now, with expectations of continued involvement next year.

4. Whether you like it or not, the future of altcoins will be a process of continuously unlocking and increasing circulation. Of course, unlocking and price surges have also become a trend this year, but merely looking at prices is no longer sufficient; one must observe the trends in circulation changes. Surge - Unlock - Sell - Surge, this remains the main cycle.

5. Crypto hotspots and mainstream hotspots will increasingly converge. Current global hotspots, financial hotspots, technological innovations, etc., will all affect market sentiment here and influence the movements of coins. This year has already seen cases where sudden hot spot explosions impacted the original trading rhythms of certain coins, accelerating everything.

6. The decoupling of BTC and the overall crypto market should accelerate.

7. Next year, Americans and Koreans should still be the main players. If the Bank of Japan really starts printing money significantly, there should be some unexpected funds flowing in.

8. When hot money is abundant, focus on theoretical aspects; when hot money is scarce, focus on practical matters. At the beginning of next year, pay attention to projects with strong fundamentals and stable profit growth. As the end of next year approaches, focus on projects with exaggerated narratives, preferably in biotechnology, quantum physics, or astrophysics.

9. After the SEC's reorganization, crypto reforms and opening up should be observed; pay attention to the overall intensity of crypto projects after January 20, as many announcements that “would originally have been classified as securities” are likely to be in the works and ready to move.

*10. Whether Bitcoin will be included in government reserves as part of Trump's first hundred days in office is very important. If not, the first half of 2025 could be a time to relax. If it does happen, then there will be no rest for 2025; let's make more money.

Wishing everyone prosperity in 2025, and may it not be as disastrous as 2024.