The Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news, mining information, project updates, technological advancements, and other industry dynamics from the week. This article is part of the news weekly, bringing you an overview of major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headline
▌Two former executives of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX received reduced sentences.
According to the Washington Post, the prison sentences of two former executives of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX appear to have been shortened. According to information from the Federal Bureau of Prisons website, Ryan Salame began serving his 7.5-year sentence in October and is now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison's expected release date is now July 2026, a few months less than her original two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 due to doubts about its financial condition and its relationship with sister trading company Alameda Research, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds by customers, similar to a bank run. Authorities later accused FTX of misappropriating customer funds for personal use, to pay off loans owed to Alameda Research, and for other projects. This scandal led to a stunning downfall for FTX, which was once the world's third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its founder, Bankman (SBF). Salame, the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamas subsidiary, admitted to operating an unlicensed remittance business, violating campaign finance laws. Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda, pleaded guilty in December 2022 to telecommunications, securities, and commodity fraud, as well as money laundering.
▌Musk: The Fed is seriously overstaffed.
Musk wrote on social media platform X that the Fed, responsible for protecting the world's largest economy, is "seriously overstaffed," comments that stemmed from a series of discussions prompted by someone posting about the Fed's latest policy decisions.
▌US media: Some major banks plan to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual stress test.
According to CNBC, an informed source revealed that several large banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve regarding the annual bank stress test. The source stated that a lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time. The Fed's stress test is an annual routine that requires banks to hold sufficient buffer capital for bad loans and specifies the scale of stock buybacks and dividends. After the market closed on Monday, the Fed announced in a statement that it plans to adjust the bank stress test, but it did not detail the specific adjustments to the annual stress test framework. However, these adjustments may not be sufficient to alleviate banks' concerns about heavy capital requirements, as the Fed stated: "These proposed adjustments are not intended to have a substantive effect on overall capital requirements." Greg Baer, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute, which represents large banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed's statement, saying in a statement: "The Fed's statement today is the first step toward transparency and accountability." However, Baer also hinted that further action may be taken: "We are carefully reviewing this statement and considering additional measures to ensure timely reforms that are both legally compliant and policy compliant."
▌Data: Only 7 out of 25 listed mining companies achieved positive returns by the end of 2024.
As of December 24, Bitcoin has risen 113% in 2024. According to the Hashrate Index and Google Finance data, most publicly listed mining companies are experiencing a downward trend in stock prices by the end of 2024, with declines of up to 84%. Among the 25 listed mining companies in this index, only 7 have achieved positive returns. As of the time of writing, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) is up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) is up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) is down 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) down 69% (just to name a few). Bitcoin miners' cumulative revenue exceeds $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com, miners' revenue on December 22 was $42 million, while the peak in April exceeded $100 million.
▌Analysts: Cryptocurrency venture capital could exceed $18 billion in 2025.
According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le's forecast, venture capital funding in the cryptocurrency industry could exceed $18 billion by 2025, with multiple quarters' investment reaching $5 billion. The total amount of cryptocurrency venture capital in 2023 is approximately $9 billion, expected to reach $11 billion in 2024, with average quarterly investments around $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Although investment activity slowed down this summer, it has seen a rebound after the elections, and generalist venture capital firms are expected to refocus on the cryptocurrency sector next year. Le also noted that the investment theme of "crypto and artificial intelligence (AI)" will continue to heat up, as cryptocurrency technology may provide innovative solutions to core issues during the expansion of AI or become new growth points.
Policy
▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a report management method for high-risk transactions related to illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies.
On December 27, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that the 'Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Trading Report Management Measures (Trial)' has been released and will take effect immediately. The measures are supporting documents for the 'Bank Foreign Exchange Business Management Measures (Trial)', aimed at strengthening banks' foreign exchange risk management and early identification, early warning, and early handling of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies. The main content includes: clarifying banks' reporting responsibilities for foreign exchange risk trading, requiring the establishment of monitoring systems and the submission of reports; specifying the scope of information reporting, including activities involving illegal cross-border capital flows; clarifying report content such as basic situations and proposed measures; and strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and data confidentiality management.
▌Russian Finance Minister: The use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that after legislative adjustments allowing the use of Bitcoin and other digital currencies to combat Western sanctions, Russian companies have begun using these currencies for international payments. This year, Russia has allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize cryptocurrency mining, including Bitcoin. Russia is one of the leading countries in global Bitcoin mining. Siluanov said, "Such transactions are already taking place. We believe such transactions should be further expanded and developed. I believe this will happen next year." He also added that the use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
▌The US Treasury and IRS have finalized tax reporting requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers.
According to market news, the US Treasury and IRS have finalized tax reporting requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021). Progress in establishing this regulatory framework has been delayed due to the cryptocurrency industry's resistance to tracking transactions.
▌The US cryptocurrency industry calls on Congress to block new regulations for DeFi brokers.
On December 27, the IRS announced new regulations defining certain decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers, requiring them to fulfill customer identity verification (KYC) obligations, which has sparked strong opposition from the cryptocurrency industry. This regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts criticize the rule as potentially exceeding authority and infringing on constitutional rights. Alexander Grieve, vice president of Paradigm, calls on the new "pro-crypto Congress" to repeal this regulation through the Congressional Review Act (CRA). The Blockchain Association states that this regulation is "the last-ditch effort to push the US crypto industry overseas" and says it will take action against it. Previously, reports indicated that the IRS required "DeFi brokers" to collect user transaction information.
▌CryptoQuant founder: Trump's Bitcoin policy depends on the US's economic position.
Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, stated that the Bitcoin policy of elected president Donald Trump may depend on the global investment community's view of the US economy and the strength of the dollar. Ju believes that when investors perceive a threat to US economic hegemony, the prices of value-storing assets such as gold and BTC will soar. However, investors continue to express confidence in the US economy and view the dollar as a safe-haven currency. This advantageous position makes it unlikely that the Trump administration will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve to protect the dollar's dominance, and it may lead the elected president to backtrack on pro-Bitcoin policies.
Blockchain applications
▌The number of global participants in the World Network has exceeded 20 million.
According to an official announcement from World, as of December, the number of global participants in the World Network has exceeded 20 million, of which about 9.5 million are verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. Weekly new users reach 800,000, with verified users increasing by 355,000. Monthly active World App users exceed 8 million, equivalent to one new user joining every 0.75 seconds. With the rapid development of AI technology, "Proof of Human" is becoming a key technology to address the online identity trust crisis. According to Stanford University's 2024 AI Index report, 52% of Americans are concerned about AI products, and 66% believe AI will have a significant impact on their lives within 3-5 years.
▌Lido released an Ethereum staking SDK, supporting cross-chain staking functionality integration.
Lido announced the launch of an Ethereum staking SDK, a TypeScript library for building off-chain integrations. This SDK allows developers to seamlessly integrate Lido's staking features into off-chain applications, providing core functionalities such as staking, reward tracking, withdrawal, and wrapping. The newly released SDK features multi-chain support, allowing for staking/unstaking operations without cross-chain complications on networks like OP Mainnet. This tool includes pre-built methods and complete documentation for developing DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.
▌Bio Protocol announced its 2025 roadmap, including the launch of a new BIO Launchpad.
The decentralized science (DeSci) management and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol announced its 2025 roadmap, which includes: the BIO token will undergo TGE on the Ethereum mainnet on January 3; the BIO token will be launched on Solana and Base networks; a new BioDAO will be launched; the BIO/BioDAO liquidity pool; and the new BIO Launchpad will officially go live.
▌Forbes published predictions for seven major trends in the cryptocurrency industry by 2025.
Forbes published predictions for seven major trends in the cryptocurrency industry by 2025: 1. G7 or BRICS countries may establish strategic Bitcoin reserves; 2. The market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to double to $400 billion; 3. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will achieve rapid growth through L2 networks (such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon), with locked value expected to exceed the current $24 billion in cross-chain wrapped Bitcoin; 4. Cryptocurrency ETF products will expand to cover Ethereum staking and Solana; 5. Tech giants like Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla in increasing their Bitcoin holdings; 6. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market will exceed $8 trillion; 7. Improvements in the US regulatory environment will drive a revival in cryptocurrency entrepreneurship.
▌Cryptocurrency mining company HIVE Digital invests $30 million to deploy NVIDIA chip clusters.
Cryptocurrency mining company HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ: HIVE) announced the deployment of a new batch of NVIDIA GPU clusters in Quebec. The total investment for this project is $30 million, which includes 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, with projected annualized revenue from HPC business reaching $15 million; the H200 cluster is expected to arrive in January 2025 and is planned to be fully deployed by the second quarter of 2025, with expected annualized revenue exceeding $20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes stated that the revenue potential of 10 MW of HPC NVIDIA chip services for AI demand is equivalent to 100 MW of Bitcoin mining revenue.
Cryptocurrency
▌Last week's Ethereum NFT trading volume surged to $186 million, reaching a three-month high.
According to The Block, last week's Ethereum NFT trading volume surged to $186 million, reaching a three-month high, a 67% increase from the previous week's $111 million. The Pudgy Penguins series was the main catalyst for this surge after the issuance of its PENGU token, generating $108 million in trading volume, with the price of a single Pudgy Penguin exceeding 29 ETH at one point but quickly dropping after the token issuance. Bitcoin is the second-largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of only $33 million.
▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many regulated US banks cannot access cryptocurrencies, and it is still unclear how regulation will evolve.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon pointed out at a recent Reuters event that many regulated US banks still cannot access cryptocurrencies. Solomon added, "Everyone is speculating on how the regulatory framework will evolve, but it is still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve." Currently, there is still speculation on how long it will take for the first cryptocurrency bill to pass through the House and Senate, as well as before Trump.
▌Telegram founder: Total revenue exceeded $1 billion this year.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov stated on his personal TG channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has doubled this year, surpassing 12 million, and advertising revenue has also increased several times. Additionally, Telegram's total revenue in 2024 exceeded $1 billion, with cash reserves exceeding $500 million, excluding crypto assets. Over the past four years, Telegram has issued about $2 billion in debt.
▌Coinbase report: The total market capitalization of stablecoins has grown by 48% from the beginning of 2024 to date.
A report from Coinbase shows that from the beginning of 2024 to date, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has grown by 48%.
▌Two whales increased their holdings by 4.47 million ai16z.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, two whales are hoarding ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC today to purchase 2.96 million ai16z at about $1.253 each. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($1.88 million) today to purchase 1.51 million ai16z at about $1.247 each.
Important economic dynamics
▌The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January next year is 87.2%.
According to CME's 'Fed Watch', the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January next year is 87.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.8%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining current rates is 50.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 44.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.
▌VanEck: A Bitcoin reserve strategy could reduce US debt by 35%, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities.
Asset management company VanEck states that if the US establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins according to the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the national debt of the US could be reduced by 35% over the next 24 years. VanEck's estimate assumes that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to reach $42.3 million by 2049, while US national debt will grow at a CAGR of 5%, climbing from $37 trillion in early 2025 to $119.3 trillion during the same period. VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: 'By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities.'
▌Wall Street: Predicting that the yield on 2-year US Treasuries will decrease by 50 basis points next year.
Although the threat posed by elected president Trump's trade and tax policies to the bond market is imminent, Wall Street is still taking cues from the Federal Reserve, predicting that yields on US short-term Treasuries will decrease in 2025. Strategists' predictions are mostly in agreement that the yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is more sensitive to Fed rate policy, will decline. They believe that yields will drop at least 50 basis points from current levels within the next 12 months. The median prediction among 12 strategists is that the yield on 2-year Treasuries will decline by about 50 basis points to 3.75% in a year. For longer-term 10-year Treasuries, strategists believe that last week's yield of about 4.52% will reach 4.25% by the end of 2025, about 25 basis points lower than current levels.
▌The won exchange rate has fallen below 1480 won per dollar, the lowest since 2009.
On December 27, the Korean won to US dollar exchange rate in the Seoul foreign exchange market surpassed 1480 won per dollar. Previously, political turmoil in South Korea led to a continuous decline of the won. On December 19, the exchange rate opened at 1453.0 won per dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market, marking the lowest value for the won against the dollar since March 2009.
▌The US dollar index has risen over 7% so far this year, marking its best performance since 2015.
The dollar is on track for its best annual performance in nearly a decade, as a strong US economy has suppressed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, and the threat of strict tariffs from elected president Donald Trump has supported bullish bets on the dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has risen over 7% so far this year, marking its best performance since 2015. As other central banks have had to step in to support their own economies, all developed currencies have weakened against the dollar.
