According to ChainCatcher, the probability of President-elect Trump approving the strategic Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office has dropped to 27% on Polymarket, down from a high of 60% following Trump's election. Currently, the betting amount for this event has exceeded $1.5 million.
Meanwhile, other prediction markets expect that Trump will eventually accept Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, joining the ranks of crude oil and gold. For example, on Kalshi, the probability of Bitcoin reserves occurring by January 2026 once reached 61%, the highest since December 21, but has currently fallen to 57%.
In addition, users of Polymarket and Kalshi expect that Texas will take time to pass the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill. The probability of Texas passing this bill by March next year is predicted to be 10% on Polymarket, while the probability on Kalshi is 24%.
