1. Did not break the March price high.
2. Did not break the 2021 historical high.
3. Will altcoin opportunities explode across the board?
4. The process goes from capital inflow to capital outflow.
Capital flows out of BTC ➩ BTC's dominance decreases ➩ Altcoins accumulate ➩ Surge.
This chart is based on statistical analysis of the performance of the top 100 tokens, dividing them into 'those that have broken the 2021 price high' and 'those that have not broken the 2021 price high.' The data source is the relevant information displayed in the chart. If you still want to seek 10x trading opportunities, selecting coins this way has a relatively higher chance.
1/ From a price perspective, altcoin prices are still hovering at bear market levels.
Only 11 have successfully broken the historical high of 21. After the 2021 bull market, 42 new tokens entered the top 100 market cap ranking, with MEME holding a significant share.
2/ From the market cap share replication perspective, during the altcoin season of 2021, Bitcoin's market dominance dropped from 61.9% to 40%. Currently, Bitcoin's share remains relatively high at 58.5%.
3// From a sentiment perspective, it is still a bear market sentiment.
Currently, every group is eerily silent. The only wish among group members is to break even. The wealth effect has not yet begun. Those truly at the end of the bull market have long lost their reason.
They not only invested all their savings into the market but even borrowed money from friends and relatives, taking loans to go all-in, disregarding everything to flood in. Bitcoin buyers will envy those who buy altcoins; in such a frenzied atmosphere, as soon as you sell your coins, you will miss the opportunity to buy back at the selling price. Market makers will use various news and pump tactics to create this atmosphere, which clearly does not indicate a bull market's end.
4/ This may be an opportunity. How to choose targets?
- As long as the project is still operating, with code repository and social media updates ongoing, and TG, Discord still have administrators, it's very likely that institutions have already intervened to control the market.
- If the risk-reward is appropriate, when the timing is right, it can yield three to five times in just seven days, and within a month can unleash the potential built up over three to four years. An altcoin season can complete the two-year bull market process of Bitcoin in just seven days.
5/ Will altcoin opportunities explode across the board?
It is very unlikely that we will see a widespread surge like in 2021.
There are three main reasons:
Continuous unlocking of tokens: The tokens of low liquidity, high FDV projects are continuously unlocked, leading to heavy selling pressure.
Excessive growth on the supply side: The industry's infrastructure is further improved, the barriers to entry are lowered, and new projects are excessively issued.
Inadequate growth on the demand side: Lack of attractive new business models, most sectors struggle to achieve product-market fit, unable to stimulate demand for altcoins.
Take ARB as an example; from a price performance perspective, ARB seems to have little increase, and its price trend even resembles that of a stablecoin. However, from a market capitalization perspective, ARB's market cap has grown by over a billion dollars in the past year. This is because its token circulation increased from an initial 12.75% to the current 26.5%. For tokens with fully diluted valuations (FDV) that are high, even if their prices do not seem to rise significantly, maintaining their market cap still requires a large number of investors (capital) to support them.
Currently, there are many popular projects with high FDV in the market. If you still expect these high FDV new projects to rise tenfold or even a hundredfold, one must wonder: where will such a massive amount of capital come from?
Therefore, this bull market will not see a widespread surge like in 2021. Altcoin season only belongs to certain tokens, and finding the right targets also requires some luck.
5/ How to determine altcoin season, 4 indicators you must know
1️⃣ Altcoin Index Tracking market sentiment towards Bitcoin or altcoins. If 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the past 90 days, it's altcoin season; otherwise, it's Bitcoin season.
🔗blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-sea…
2️⃣ BTC dominance (market cap share)
Funds flow into BTC ➩ BTC's dominance increases ➩ Altcoins are drained ➩ Altcoins fall
Funds flow out of BTC ➩ BTC's dominance decreases ➩ Altcoins accumulate ➩ Surge 🔗cn.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/
3️⃣ TOTAL 2 TOTAL2 represents the total market cap of the top 125 altcoins excluding BTC, indicating the inflow of funds into altcoins.
🔗tradingview.com/symbols/TOTAL2/
4️⃣ ETH/BTC exchange rate. From the market cycle perspective, the flow of funds generally goes: BTC—ETH—Mainstream altcoins—Sub-mainstream altcoins—Meme. Bitcoin is faith, Ethereum is the leader. Strengthening Ethereum is a prerequisite for altcoins to surge. When the Ethereum exchange rate strengthens, one can pay attention to altcoins.
The biggest fears in a bull market are: greed, fear, blindness, following the crowd, going with the flow, chasing highs and cutting losses, because it is a place where only a few people make money.
If you are afraid of missing the altcoin season, the only thing you can do is find a high-value entry point and set a stop loss. Whether it can break historical highs again, luck is very important.
So what trading opportunities do we still have? 👇👇
#BTCUSD #ETH