Yesterday's cryptocurrency market felt like a small roller coaster ride; BTC slightly shook the market. Those market makers wanted to pull the price back but failed, leading to erratic market behavior with sudden rises and falls, causing anxiety among everyone. So, is the bull market in the cryptocurrency space still there?
Analyzing the market:
BTC is still in a high-level oscillating market; currently, the chances of a significant drop or rise are low. Two key support levels have formed at 92,000 and 90,000, only 2,000 away, so the closer it gets to 90,000, the stronger the support!
The upper level is the psychological price point of one hundred thousand, which has not been broken in the previous two tests. One hundred thousand is a significant psychological barrier for most, and it is also the resistance level of the MA30 moving average, so the oscillating market will experience a pullback when faced with pressure and rebound when supported.
Understanding the trend gives you a strategy, which is mainly to buy low and sell high.
In the altcoin space, most coins will follow the trend of BTC and fluctuate with rises and falls. However, as long as BTC remains at a high level, funds will gradually flow into altcoins. Currently, altcoins are merely lacking a trigger; as long as there is a hot spot, then hot sector altcoins will have independent rising markets. Others will continue to wait for their moment to shine. Currently, only a few small hot spots like PHA have tapped into certain technical aspects of AI coin issuance, which is a small spark in a dull market, hence being favored by the market. However, if you cannot understand the technical aspects and lack a cost advantage, it is difficult to speculate, so if you miss out on some things, just let it go without worrying. Suitable opportunities will arise; otherwise, focus on short-term trading or reviewing.
Currently, it is evident to anyone with eyes that Bitcoin is in a bull market, with prices continuously breaking new highs. However, a bull market means that at least 70% of the coins in the cryptocurrency space must rise collectively; that has clearly not yet occurred in this wave. But it cannot be rigidly defined, as the scale of funds and background in the cryptocurrency space is entirely different now.
Our thinking must also change
The definition of a bull market in the past was a general rise, but the scale of funds and market background in the cryptocurrency space has changed significantly, so we cannot measure the current bull market solely by historical standards.
The current funds are more abundant, players are more professional, and market differentiation is more severe.
Mainstream coins and quality projects are more likely to attract funding, while the probability of altcoins following suit has decreased.
The BTC bull market is beyond doubt
Bitcoin's price continues to reach new highs, and the market trend is strong.
The definition of a bull market is not just the rise of BTC alone, but the collective rise of the majority of coins in the entire market; we have not yet reached such a widespread upward state.
Hold onto your chips, maintain your mindset, and don't let short-term fluctuations affect your confidence in the market! In 2025, we are likely to welcome a brand new surge, and now is the crucial stage for laying the groundwork.
"Don't panic about market fluctuations; the bull market drama has just begun!"
Market sentiment index analysis
The cryptocurrency market is in a downtrend this week, with the market sentiment index rising from 7% last week to 10%, still in an extreme panic range. In terms of Altcoin, this week it has performed worse than the benchmark index, showing a significant downward trend.
During the dual festival market, recent market liquidity has plummeted, and market volatility has increased, making sudden rises and falls more likely. This has led to a lack of exuberance in market sentiment. Given the current market structure, it is expected that Altcoin will temporarily remain in sync with the benchmark index, with a low probability of independent markets.
It is worth mentioning that when Altcoin is in an extreme state of panic, the market is often at a stage bottom, and an upward reversal could happen at any time.
January turning point!
The market actually began to rise in mid-October, driven by expectations of Trump's election. From anticipation to final realization, the wave of increases in these two months has reached a stage. If we trace back a bit further, it started in mid-September, meaning it has risen for three months. Currently, after this wave of speculation ends, there is a lack of new narratives, so it can only enter a similar oscillation cycle. At present, the overall market still revolves around the previous low, establishing a basis for oscillation without breaking the previous low. A significant portion of altcoins is actually oscillating in a daily level pullback range.
Remember, we buy when prices are low, and when prices are high, we wait a bit and don't rush to sell everything. This way, regardless of whether prices rise or fall, we don't have to worry, and our mindset can remain stable. In trading, do not be overly anxious; do not act blindly when excited; it must be a planned and gradual approach.
Trump was officially inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and only after his inauguration can he truly issue policy directives. Therefore, 2024 can already be considered a bull market for cryptocurrencies. We should calm down and reflect more; otherwise, we might incur greater losses when the bear market arrives, and the next bull market might turn out to be a busy but fruitless journey.
The upcoming market may indeed have a brief consolidation, as the market needs a consolidation process after a rapid rise. However, looking to the future, the market expectations for January next year are very optimistic, especially on January 20, as news of Trump's return to power may bring significant stimulation to the cryptocurrency space.
Why might January next year be the time for a super market rally?
Trump's presidency may bring expectations of more lenient policies, particularly in the fields of financial innovation and digital assets. The stock market and cryptocurrency markets have historically had a linkage effect, and political signals may ignite market enthusiasm.
January is usually a time for funds to flow back, and both institutions and retail investors will prepare for the new year's layout. Coupled with the market's expectations for a bull market, the likelihood of funds entering the market has greatly increased.
If global economic policies continue to be loose, inflation and demand for safe-haven assets will continue to boost the attractiveness of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Coupled with the upcoming Bitcoin halving cycle, these factors may create a resonance effect.
Currently, major coins like BTC and ETH have shown strength, and the bull market trend is gradually being established. After market confidence is restored, funds may accelerate their flow into other mainstream coins and quality projects, potentially igniting the altcoin sector.
How to respond to this potential major bull market?
Plan ahead:
Now is an excellent "lying low ambush period"; seize the adjustment opportunity to buy quality assets at low prices.
Key focus:
BTC, ETH, and other major coins are the top choices, while also paying attention to potentially explosive sectors supported by policies (such as Layer 2, AI, Meme, etc.).
Reasonable allocation:
Grasp the rhythm of focusing on spot trading, supplemented by contracts, and avoid heavily investing in high-volatility assets.
Set goals:
Do not blindly chase after rises; take profits in batches to lock in gains.
Seize historical opportunities
January 20 may become an important turning point in cryptocurrency history. Whether it is favorable policies or the advancement of market cycles, there is much anticipation for the January market. Now is the time to lay a solid foundation for the future bull market!
"Next time there's a surge, do you want to miss it again?" Keep pace and secure a first-class seat in the bull market!