There are only a few days left until 2024 (Gregorian calendar). Today, I will briefly analyze the US stock market and Bitcoin and share my humble opinions.
First, regarding the US stock market, theoretically, there must be a bear market when there is a bull market. However, looking at the US stock market, does it have bear markets? Even if there are corrections, they are quickly pulled back and break new highs again! Even during the pandemic's black swan event in 2020, when the US stock market experienced multiple circuit breakers, President Trump flooded the market with liquidity, and the US stock market continued to soar. This shows that the US allows the stock market to correct but will not let it collapse without limits.
Next, regarding Bitcoin, Bitcoin is a market with clear boundaries between bulls and bears, with a small cycle every two years and a major bull-bear cycle every four years. It is not difficult to find that since the lowest price at the end of 2022, this bull market has lasted for over 750 days, just a little over two years. According to the time pattern, has this major bull market already entered the tail end phase?
Now, let's analyze the structural changes of Bitcoin holders. In the past, Bitcoin holders included retail investors, large holders, miners, trading platforms, and a few capital institutions. With the approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs, more and more people are paying attention to Bitcoin, and the entry of established financial institutions has made Bitcoin more robust and stable. In the past, an announcement from a trading platform could lead to miners and large holders selling off, causing retail investors to panic and triggering a collapse in Bitcoin's price. National-level policies could deliver a nuclear-style blow to Bitcoin. However, now the influence of large holders and miners on Bitcoin's price is minimal, and policies and platform rules can only affect short-term trends. This indicates that Bitcoin is no longer just for ordinary people; after several rounds of bull and bear cycles, most Bitcoin has entered the pockets of super large holders and major institutions.
So, can Bitcoin perform a long bull market like the US stock market? I believe it certainly can in the future. Short-term declines and long, slow bull markets will be the main theme for Bitcoin. However, when this future will occur is beyond my knowledge; it could be now or it could be in the next four years or the next bull-bear cycle.