$COW I will analyze the COW/USDT chart and give the scenarios:
Current technical analysis:
1. Current situation:
- Price is at 1.0240 (-8.47%)
- Sharp decline from the peak of 1.23 (down about 17%)
- MA20 (1.0635) > current price, indicating a short-term downtrend
- MACD shows negative divergence signal (DIF: 0.0540 < DEA: 0.0737)
- Large inflow in 5 days is negative (-5.43M)
- Selling pressure from large and medium orders is very strong
2. Possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Probability 60%): Continue to decline
- Target: 0.95-0.98
- Signs:
- Strong selling pressure from large orders (396,262.60)
- Continuous negative cash flow
- Strong increase in selling volume
- Deep decrease in OBV
Scenario 2 (40% probability): Technical recovery
- Possible price range: 1.08-1.10
- Signs:
- RSI is in oversold zone
- Price has fallen sharply from peak
- Trading volume shows signs of stabilization
Trading recommendations:
1. For current positions:
- If you are losing heavily: Cut losses to preserve capital
- If you are losing slightly: You can hold and wait for a recovery to exit
2. For new positions:
- Do not open a new buy position immediately
- Wait for the price to stabilize for at least 24-48 hours
- You can place a buy order in the 0.95-0.98 range with small volume
3. Risk management:
- Do not bottom-fish during this period
- Use only 2-3% of capital for each order
- Set stop loss tight below 0.95
4. Further monitoring:
- Trading volume developments
- Large cash flow changes
- Movements of MA and MACD lines
Note: This is a period of strong fluctuations with large selling pressure, investors need to be especially cautious and prioritize capital preservation. Should combine with general market analysis to make appropriate decisions.