BlockBeats news, on December 27, a weekly report released by Matrixport showed that there are multiple potential threats that may derail the current Bitcoin bull market. One notable concern comes from BlackRock, which said there is "no guarantee" that Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap will remain unchanged due to the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin protocol.
In addition, new developments such as Google's announcement of its "Willow" quantum chip with 105 qubits have also sparked discussions about potential long-term threats to Bitcoin's security. In addition, Federal Reserve members recently raised their inflation expectations. This change is more politically driven. Specifically, concerns about Trump's potential tariffs, which economists generally believe are inflationary, appear to have influenced their expectations. However, during Trump's first term, these tariffs had little impact on inflation. This suggests that the Fed's inflation expectations may not be fully consistent with current economic realities, which could create room for flexibility in policy making in the coming year.
According to Matrixport's model, inflation is not expected to be a major issue next year, which may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance. However, based on past experiences, Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak when regulatory pressures reach a critical point. With most of the regulatory uncertainties seemingly resolved, the risk of this Bitcoin bull market ending may depend on other factors.
Although the abandonment of near-zero interest rates in December 2021 was a significant change, recently, the Federal Reserve has indicated more than a year of intention to lower interest rates before implementing the first cut in September 2024. This situation introduces new uncertainties for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as the Federal Reserve's response to Trump's potential fiscal policies could impact the trajectory of monetary policy.
