Predicting the future is difficult, but as an investor, we have to have a plan, right? Just like any other plan, this investment plan must be adjusted flexibly as the market changes - after all, the market is a fickle guy.

Today, let’s take a look at the market forecast and response plan for 2025 by well-known analyst and trader 0xKyle.

Looking back at 2024

Let’s get straight to the point! First, let’s talk about his macro expectations and market scenario assumptions.

The market trend in 2024 is roughly as follows:

  • On January 10, the Bitcoin ETF was launched;

  • BTC hits a new high, briefly sparking an alt season;

  • Then it entered the volatile period of Q2 and Q3, with BTC hovering between $50,000 and $60,000;

  • After Election Day, BTC hit new highs, all the way up to $100,000;

  • It has not been able to effectively break through the 100,000 mark for the time being and is currently hovering above 90,000 US dollars.

The current market situation is that Bitcoin is hovering between 90,000 and 100,000, and the performance of altcoins seems to be somewhat volatile. :

What will happen next? When will the spring of altcoins come?

Four Possibilities for the Crypto Market in 2025

Hypothesis 1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together

If Bitcoin continues to be strong, altcoins will follow suit. Imagine the entire market is in a rhythm of "up, up, up"! The kind of carnival in the last two months of 2024 may reappear.

Likelihood: 30% - 40%

Strategy: Buy during the current “panic”! Now is a good time to grab strong altcoins.

Hypothesis 2: Bitcoin rises, while altcoins rise less

This is the most common scenario for 2024: Bitcoin continues to rise, while other altcoins are somewhat "soy sauce". The performance of altcoins may be more volatile, but in general, Bitcoin leads the market.

Likelihood: 50% - 60%

Strategy: Continue to buy in the "panic" market, but select some niche, high-potential altcoins. Don't blindly follow the trend and look for the next currency that may rise.

Assumption 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall

This is a bit dramatic: Bitcoin is rising, but altcoins may be entering the "valley of death". If this is true, it may be the top of altcoins.

Likelihood: 20% - 30%

Strategy: Sell all altcoins. Although there may be a small loss in the short term, if the altcoins do not rise, it is time to clear the position.

Hypothesis 4: Bitcoin and altcoins fall together

This is the most undesirable situation, but it is also possible. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic and the market may enter a period of adjustment.

Likelihood: 10% - 20%

Strategy: Stay calm and don't panic. The market will always fluctuate, so remember not to bet everything on it and have a backup plan.

The trend of the crypto market in 2025 is not just a technical issue. Changes in the macroeconomic and political environment will also have a profound impact on the market.

First of all, Bitcoin’s next new high may not be as slow as in 2024. Although BTC was challenged by the regulatory environment in 2024, and the traditional financial system (TradFi) is still working hard to promote Bitcoin after the launch of ETFs, the future rise will be faster as the market pays more attention to digital assets.

Especially since the new U.S. government came to power, Trump’s discussion of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) has made Bitcoin part of the political agenda. This intersection of politics and finance has greatly increased the appeal of Bitcoin, and the perception of ordinary investors will also change significantly.

This change in the macro background is very important, and it provides momentum for further gains in Bitcoin. As more mainstream countries pay attention to Bitcoin and its strategic value, Bitcoin's market acceptance may increase significantly.

Altcoins: Still full of opportunities, but be cautious

As for altcoins, I am still optimistic about their performance in 2025. But I want to make it clear that the altcoin market is more volatile, so it is crucial to judge "when to attack and when to defend".

In 2025, the volatility of the on-chain market may be more drastic than that of Bitcoin. When the "tide recedes", the on-chain market is likely to experience a -70% adjustment. Therefore, my strategy is to sell at the peak of the attention of the altcoin market, reinvest the funds in the top altcoins (top 20), and then slowly lay out.

Despite this, I do not think that altcoins have peaked. Bitcoin's rise will provide support for altcoins, but altcoins will not simply follow Bitcoin's footsteps.

In other words, the performance of altcoins will depend on changes in market sentiment and hot narratives, which cannot be easily predicted.

The crypto market in 2025 may be an opportunity or a challenge. In any case, staying calm and keeping up with market changes are the keys to winning this game!