Since Trump's victory 'was settled' at the beginning of November, the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, has entered a strong expectation of 'American Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.' It is evident that the market will focus heavily on the implementation of this commitment after Trump takes office in 2025. Some analysts bluntly state that this will break the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle, meaning that any 'interlude' in the future could lead to dramatic market fluctuations. What we can do now is to focus on its progress, anticipate potential landing timelines, and make appropriate preparations.
01 Latest Developments
'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' has actually been proposed and discussed before the U.S. presidential election. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act) on July 31, 2024, which suggested purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually, reaching 1 million within five years.
Subsequently, during the campaign, Trump promised in his speech at a Bitcoin conference in the cryptocurrency industry that he would become the 'cryptocurrency president.' The industry hopes he will fulfill his promise by creating a Bitcoin inventory through executive orders, ensuring that the industry can access banking services, and establishing a cryptocurrency committee.
On December 17, 2024, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), a nonprofit organization focused on Bitcoin policy research (not an official organization, but still an important think tank for decision-makers on Bitcoin-related issues), recently released a draft of an executive order, attempting to provide reference opinions for Trump's 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' executive order framework. This draft explicitly proposes to allocate 1%-5% of Treasury assets for Bitcoin purchases to form a long-term reserve, led by the Treasury with collaboration from the Federal Reserve to gradually establish reserves.
On December 19, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (expected to continue serving after Trump takes office) expressed cautious views at a press conference, stating that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any government plans to hoard Bitcoin. Such issues fall within the jurisdiction of Congress, and the Federal Reserve has not sought to change existing laws to allow the holding of Bitcoin.
From the latest situation, although the Federal Reserve chairman holds conservative views, under favorable conditions such as a cryptocurrency-friendly U.S. Treasury Secretary nominated by Trump and the rapid issuance of 'presidential executive orders' after taking office, these will not affect Trump's team from continuing to push for the inclusion of Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves.
02 Earliest Landing Time
Since 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' is not a minor issue that can be executed immediately because one person in the U.S. presidency has a sudden idea, we will not see its implementation right away. Based on the current administrative orders or legislative processes in the country, if Trump is to implement the Bitcoin strategic reserve, after taking office, he would immediately have the cryptocurrency committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessments, and after completion, formally propose a plan, which can then proceed through two paths:
Path 1: Presidential Executive Order (earliest in the second half of 2025)
Issuing an executive order directly after Trump takes office is the quickest path, as it can bypass resistance from the Federal Reserve and Congress, and is also based on the draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute', instructing the U.S. Treasury to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly allocate Bitcoin.
However, while this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. Although the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund does not require congressional approval, it can be investigated and legislated against by Congress. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so their permanence and stability are not as good as legislation.
Path 2: Congressional Legislation (earliest in the second half of 2026)
If a more stable legislative path is chosen, it will require a longer process. After the policy research and feasibility assessment by the cryptocurrency committee, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, then go through the Senate, House of Representatives, and finally be signed into law by the president before formal legislation is completed.
This process may experience various back-and-forth and be relatively complex, as many conservative members of Congress will certainly raise objections and obstruct progress. Therefore, although this path can lead to a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, likely not landing until the second half of 2026 to 2027.
Recently, news has emerged that the cryptocurrency industry is pushing Trump's team to issue an executive order on the first day of his term next month to initiate the promised cryptocurrency policy reforms, helping to promote the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency. So if it goes through executive orders, we may see the implementation of the Bitcoin strategic reserve as early as after mid-2025.
03 Several Important Time Nodes
During the period when the relevant executive orders or bills for the Bitcoin strategic reserve are 'going through the process', the following time nodes may have significant impacts on the market:
1) January 20, 2025, around Trump's inauguration ceremony
Trump will officially take office on this day, and from this time onwards, he can officially start 'issuing orders'. This time node will mark the beginning of the new president's governance, and related policy directions may gradually emerge. The market will pay close attention to the inauguration speech and the release of his early executive orders. This inauguration ceremony is expected to be quite lively with many invited guests, and the financial market will also pay close attention.
2) Mid-2025, completion of the policy research phase
According to the timeline, the cryptocurrency committee's policy research is expected to be completed in the first half of 2025 to mid-year, along with a feasibility report and draft regarding Bitcoin reserves. Subsequently, Trump can sign the executive order, marking the official introduction of the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve'.
3) In the second half of 2025 to early 2026, implementation details and potential congressional tug-of-war.
After signing the relevant executive orders and determining the related framework, the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, and other relevant departments will begin to formulate specific implementation details, including Bitcoin procurement methods, reserve ratios, asset management rules, etc., and then start formal implementation.
During this period, it is expected that things will not go too smoothly, as opposing members of Congress will join in to obstruct and repeatedly pull back.
Ultimately, if everything goes smoothly and the Bitcoin reserve strategy brings objective 'benefits', it may further promote legislation in the future, which will have a profound impact on the landscape of the cryptocurrency market.
04 Summary
The path of 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' seems full of twists and turns, and it is not something that can be implemented overnight; it is at least a matter of half a year later. Nevertheless, Trump's 'American Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' has brought good expectations and has also 'set a template' that encourages central banks, financial institutions, and publicly traded companies to research and explore the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves. Although there may still be many uncertainties regarding policy details and the final implementation timeline, we still need to follow and pay attention to key time nodes and make necessary adjustments in response.

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