The cryptocurrency market is entering a challenging and volatile phase, requiring traders to exercise utmost caution. Below is a detailed analysis based on the current situation:
Bitcoin and Short-Term Future
Bitcoin (BTC) has shown persistent strength throughout previous cycles, but currently, liquidity pressure at the top is significantly decreasing. Based on technical analysis:
Bullish Scenario:
Probability of BTC reaching $120,000: Only about 25%. This is the maximum expectation in the current phase.
Probability of BTC reaching $110,000: Higher probability, around 50%, but still faces many liquidity barriers.
Discount Scenario:
BTC is facing significant liquidity levels at: $74,000, $61,500, $45,500, and $35,700. This could trigger a strong liquidity hunt down to these lows in the next 3 months.
Altseason and Forecast for Altcoins
No Altseason before April 2025: Altcoins like Solana, BNB, and many others are unlikely to establish new ATHs before this period.
BTC Dominance (BTC DOM): Expected to reach 60%, reinforcing Bitcoin's dominant position in the cryptocurrency market.
Suggested Trading Strategy
For Bitcoin:
If BTC drops to significant liquidity levels (such as $35,700 - $45,500), this could be an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.
With a not overly strong bullish scenario, be cautious when trading in the price range above $100,000.
For Altcoins:
Limit expectations for altcoins in the short term, especially when the market is focusing liquidity on Bitcoin.
Watch for signs of recovery after BTC completes a major correction.
Risk Management:
Always set stop-losses in every trade to protect assets against sudden volatility.
Don't go all-in on any coin; allocate capital wisely to maintain flexibility.
Final Note
Forecasts are not absolutely certain, with an accuracy probability of around 60-75%. The cryptocurrency market always carries high risks, so traders need to remain calm while relying on data and technical analysis to make appropriate decisions.