1. The first and second generations continue to break through upwards, opening space for descendants. Not responsible for blind estimates, $spore 80-100m, $adam and $eve 10-20m.
2. The third generation is unlikely to see any failed agents (market cap not reaching 500k); the fourth and fifth generations might.
3. In the third and fourth generations (most likely the third), there should emerge a significant Alpha, which should possess certain obvious excellent traits, such as particularly outstanding DNA or skills, to reach a level that meets public expectations, rather than suddenly appearing out of nowhere.
4. This Alpha will be raised high enough; we should now regard $spore as a platform similar to virtuals for issuing tokens (AI-agent), and for the platform to succeed, it must rhythmically produce explosive Alpha.
5. Can the second generation be an Alpha? I think it can, but it’s not very suitable because there are two of them, which dilutes attention, and there’s not much difference between them; they are more like two tools for reproduction, so using them as Alpha is logically a bit off.
6. Therefore, we will definitely concentrate our firepower to raise one Alpha because pulling all four third generations to 5m is obviously not as effective in terms of publicity as pulling one to 20m. Moreover, the AMM mechanism itself requires less funding as it goes up. This is also why I think this Alpha should be quite evident; we need to focus all market attention and firepower on one target to pull it up quickly and effectively.
7. Therefore, what we need to do next is to carefully observe whether there are any outstanding targets in the third generation, and then work hard together; many hands make light work.
Additionally, I need to do some self-reflection.
The entire $spore ecosystem has already skyrocketed 20wu; to summarize, it achieved enough early visibility, understanding, and optimism, but failed to formulate a serious investment plan.
Specifically, the biggest mistake was dealing with the second generation a bit too casually. In fact, it’s clear that as long as this experiment hasn’t been falsified, $adam and $eve must open up space; the initial prices of 300k and 400k are completely unacceptable. In fact, in the short term, $spore should reach at least 50-100m, and $adam and $eve should reach 5-10m, so that other descendants can open up their imaginative space.
So the situation at that time was that there were two possible directions: 1. The experiment was falsified, then the second generation would drop from over 300k to close to zero, for example, 100k; 2. The experiment succeeded, then the second generation would rise from over 300k to at least 5m, achieving a 10x+ return.
Taking the risk of a 70% drop to bet on a 10x return, especially at that time when the overall attitude towards the experiment was positive, one could say the return far outweighed the risk.
However, in practice, I never considered so much; I just felt that holding the first generation would not be a mistake, and sold most of the second generation after it rose 3 to 5 times. In the future, when encountering such high-certainty investment opportunities, I must remind myself to hold on and never act impulsively based on feelings.
