Analysis of Bitcoin #BTC and Its Dominance - Outlook for the First Quarter of 2025
Today, December 26, 2024, we evaluate the price behavior of Bitcoin across different time frames (3 hours, daily, and weekly) along with the evolution of its dominance. This analysis includes the direct relationship between BTC's dominance and the capital shift towards altcoins, which could define key opportunities in the cryptocurrency market at the beginning of 2025.
1. Bitcoin Price Analysis
3-Hour Chart (Intraday - Short Term)
Current Structure:
The price is consolidating between the resistance of $98,500 and the support of $91,000. This narrow range reflects a lack of defined strength, suggesting lateralization in the short term.
Imbalance FVG:
If the $91,000 support is broken, the price could head towards the identified imbalance zone between $75,000 and $83,000, which coincides with relevant Fibonacci retracement levels.
Expectation:
As long as there are no clear breakouts, it is likely that the price will remain in this range, with a greater likelihood of consolidation or small intraday rebounds.
Daily Chart (Medium Term - Swing Trading)
Overall Trend:
Although BTC maintains a bullish structure, the rejections at $98,500 and the current weakness at the $91,000 support suggest that the price could be in a pullback phase.
Healthy technical pullback:
A correction towards levels of $75,000 to $83,000 would be normal and would represent an opportunity to accumulate long positions, as it would not break the greater bullish trend.
Expectation:
Consolidation or additional pullbacks in the coming weeks, but with the possibility that the price finds support and resumes an upward movement towards the first quarter of 2025.
Weekly Chart (Long Term - Macro)
Macro Structure:
The strong rally from $75,000 to $108,000 in recent months has left the market in a phase of natural exhaustion. The current pullback is necessary for the market to continue upward healthily.
Key Support:
The $75,000 zone remains the most relevant area in case of a prolonged pullback. As long as the price remains above, the macro bullish structure will stay intact.
Projection for the First Quarter of 2025:
After this pullback, BTC could look to break the resistance at $98,500 again and aim for $120,000 or more during the first quarter.
2. Bitcoin Dominance and Its Impact on Altcoins
Current Situation of Dominance
BTC's dominance shows a pullback from 61.8% Fibonacci levels, which has historically marked the beginning of significant capital shifts towards altcoins.
Currently at 58.3%, this drop suggests that the market is entering a phase of capital redistribution, with investors seeking opportunities in altcoins after Bitcoin's significant movement.
Market Effect:
BTC Lateralization:
With dominance decreasing, it is likely that Bitcoin will enter a lateral range while capital flows into altcoins, which could limit immediate explosive movements in BTC.
Altcoins on the Rise:
This environment is usually favorable for altcoins, especially those with solid fundamentals. Significant rallies are likely to be seen in mid and large altcoins over the coming weeks and the first quarter of 2025.
Conclusion on Dominance:
The drop in BTC's dominance suggests a period of lateralization for Bitcoin as capital finds opportunities in altcoins, which could result in a significant "altseason" before BTC resumes an explosive upward movement.
3. General Projection for the First Quarter of 2025
1. Bitcoin (BTC):
Technical pullback towards $91,000 or even the imbalance between $75,000-$83,000 is expected in the short term.
Once this pullback is completed, a bullish movement towards $120,000 is anticipated in the first quarter of 2025, especially if macroeconomic fundamentals remain favorable.
2. Altcoins:
The drop in BTC's dominance is a bullish signal for altcoins. Strong movements are expected in solid projects as capital flows into this sector.
3. Strategy I am using:
BTC: Wait for corrections to accumulate long positions in key areas ($91,000 and $75,000-$83,000).
Altcoins: Identify projects with technical and fundamental potential to take advantage of capital shifts.
Risk Management: Keep stops tight and avoid overexposing positions, as volatility may increase.
In summary, the current pullback of BTC is a healthy behavior within its macro bullish trend. The drop in dominance marks a key moment for altcoins, with bullish projections for both segments of the market heading into the first quarter of 2025. This is a strategic moment to plan accumulations in both BTC and altcoins while managing risk appropriately.
Disclaimer
This analysis does not constitute investment advice; I only share my own trading and market perspective. Each decision should be evaluated according to your risk profile and personal objectives.
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