The US stock market was closed yesterday, and ETF trading was paused for one day.
Binance's Bitcoin reserves have fallen below 570,000, hitting a new low since January this year. Data shows that after a similar reserve level in January, Bitcoin's price rose by 90% in March. The amount of Bitcoin in CEX will decrease over time, and in the long run, Bitcoin is a high-quality reserve asset.
Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a 'small bullish candle', and the trend remains within a fluctuating range. Currently, from a daily level, the significant resistance is at 100,000, while support is located near 92,000. This range has become the main area of recent fluctuations, and the market has yet to break through the key range, so the direction choice still needs further confirmation.
Overall, the trend after the US stock market opens today is very important. The trading volume has been very low over the past two days, making it impossible to assess demand strength. There is some pressure above 100,000, and support is above 92,000, with a high probability of a fluctuating trend.
In terms of altcoins, there is a correlated adjustment, the funding situation is average, speculative sentiment is low, and there is no obvious short-term profit effect. Long-term positions can continue to be held as Bitcoin's market share shows a weak rebound, waiting for clear signals of a turning point to come, patiently.
This position belongs to the normal market differentiation effect; the timing must differentiate due to three events!
1. Monthly Year: Year line convergence position! The capital differentiation before the year line closing is favorable for the market!
2. BTC high-pressure consolidation: The upward effect of altcoin sectors lasts for more than 5 days, and there are no segments for altcoins to take over, so a differentiated correction is a normal operation!
3. BTC price pressure area, bloodsucking effect!
The market may suddenly experience a 'pin pullback'. Let's be cautious and not chase blindly. If it indeed drops below 95,000, that would be a good opportunity for us to accumulate in batches! Remember, missing out is always better than being stuck in a bad position!
Plan well for the subsequent market movements.
1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together.
If 2025 becomes a one-sided bullish market, with Bitcoin continuing to rise and altcoins performing well, we may see a repeat of the comprehensive rise we experienced over the past two months.
Probability: 30%-40%
Action Plan: Buy quality altcoins on dips, seize the opportunity to layout.
2: Bitcoin rises, altcoins have limited gains.
This is similar to the market in 2024; the market may still fluctuate in the coming months, but overall it is more optimistic than in 2024 (as Bitcoin continues to rise). Certain sectors may perform well.
Probability: 50%-60%
Action Plan: Buy selected altcoins on dips, avoid overheated areas, and look for the next potential direction.
3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall.
If this is the peak for altcoins, Bitcoin may continue to rise strongly while altcoins perform weakly.
Probability: 20%-30%
Action Plan: Decisively liquidate altcoins. Although there may be some pullback, if altcoins lack upward momentum, it is still necessary to cut losses in time.
4: Both Bitcoin and altcoins fell.
If the market peaks, all assets will enter a downward cycle.
Probability: 10%-20%
I believe that the time for Bitcoin to break new highs will not be as long as in 2024, as the current macro environment has provided favorable support for Bitcoin. During the 'summer slump' of 2024, even though ETFs had just launched, traditional financial institutions were still trying to tell clients the value story of Bitcoin. However, at that time, there was no global consensus on the importance of Bitcoin.
Now, with Trump in office, discussions about 'strategic Bitcoin reserves' are gradually heating up, and this narrative has undergone significant changes.
In the end, trading is all about good planning.
The most important advice here is: stay flexible and go with the flow like water. Enjoy this journey; market changes are inevitable, but that is precisely what makes investing fascinating. As the saying goes:
"No one can step into the same river twice, for the river is ever-changing, and so is the person."
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