$BTC Intraday Trend Analysis

Overall Trend:

1. The US is entering the Lunar New Year market, and overall market trading volume is sluggish, with weakened volatility. When the US market reopens in the evening, volatility may resume;

2. Altcoins are generally weak today, with Bitcoin experiencing a pullback after a rise. Altcoins are following the decline but not rising; exercise caution when going long on altcoins;

3. Currently, another significant rise lacks further favorable fundamentals. The December interest rate decision has been made, and after Powell's hawkish comments, the market is likely to maintain the current monetary policy in the short term, with a bearish macro outlook;

4. The main market has reached a high-density area of chips. Overall, view it as a wide-range fluctuation with a focus on 93000-100000. The choice of subsequent direction requires confirmation of volume. If it stabilizes above 100000, then consider not going short.

Short-term Trend:

1. After a high pullback, it failed to break through 100000 directly, confirming resistance. If it breaks 98000 with increased volume, it will further look for support, expected around 96000;

2. Long positions in the contract market continue to decrease, with negative premiums appearing in contracts. Market sentiment is bearish, and it is not advisable to chase prices in the short term; exercise caution when going long;

3. Within the range of 93000-100000, short-term operations should focus on selling high and buying low, avoiding chasing prices and selling at a loss, while waiting for direction selection.

Operational Suggestions:

1. Conservative Short: If it breaks 98000 with increased volume and fails to rebound above 98000, go short in the trend. If it stabilizes above 98000, exit. High risk-reward ratio, with controllable risk.

2. Aggressive Short: Position short at market price, with a stop loss if it closes above 100000 on the 4-hour chart. The risk-reward ratio is also favorable.

3. Bottom Fishing Long: Consider entering if it stabilizes and rebounds in the 95000-96000 range, with a very tight stop loss, such as exiting if it falls below 95000.

4. Breakout Long: If it stabilizes above 100000 on the 4-hour chart, consider chasing the price, but pay attention to volume support.