If the news resonates with the market:
If the market is bullish and news is favorable, then it is very likely to rise.
If the market is bearish and news is favorable, then the probability of rising is low.
Recently, everyone has been discussing the EU's decision to delist USDT, and many are worried that the market will plummet, causing panic sentiment to spread.
But I would like to ask: What does the EU's delisting of USDT actually mean? If unclear, why would one think the market will plummet?
First, we need to clarify one point: The EU's delisting of USDT is actually only aimed at its own cryptocurrency exchanges, which is a relatively small market.
This means that EU exchanges will no longer support USDT, but this does not affect USDT trading on other exchanges like Binance, OKEx, Coinbase, and ZB.
Therefore, this measure only affects users trading on EU exchanges; users in other regions can still use USDT.
Furthermore, there are many stablecoins globally, not just USDT, but also USDC, BUSD, DAI, and various options.
It is important to clarify that stablecoins are merely tools for purchasing cryptocurrencies. Even without USDT, trading can still be conducted using other stablecoins.
Finally, why is such news appearing at this moment?
In fact, this is not a negative message, but retail investors perceive it as bad news due to panic.
Retail investors are so sensitive because of the recent market decline, where many have been trapped, compounded by a wave of ups and downs in the first half of the year, leading to habitual thinking.
Does this news resonate with the market? Are there signs of a significant drop in the market?
The purpose of appearing at this moment is what, once you understand the market, you will grasp the intentions of the major players.
The rebound during Christmas saw a decrease in total Bitcoin futures open interest, but the price surged significantly, indicating that this was entirely driven by spot trading; it is speculated that large holders will soon be seen purchasing a substantial amount of spot BTC during Christmas...
If I say this is a trend influence, many may not take it seriously. So let me look at it from another perspective: perhaps some investors have accepted the expectation that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice in 2025. After all, based on the market reaction following Powell's speech, Bitcoin's price remains above $100,000, indicating that investors are beginning to gradually accept this outcome.
Additionally, the core PCE data before Christmas may also become a key factor in boosting market sentiment. In terms of support levels, the range from $95,000 to $100,000 remains very solid. Unless there are clear negative news in the short term, I do not recommend shorting. In a bull market, although there will be short-term fluctuations, the price recovery speed is also rapid. No one should doubt the fact that we are in a bull market, even if it is just Bitcoin's bull market.
During this period, pay close attention to the performance of ETH and SOL, exchange rates: BTCD, E/B, S/B.
The secondary market has begun to show signs of warming under the leadership of the grayscale sector zen. Next, we will continue to firmly hold our positions, adopting a strategy of buying small on small dips and buying large on large dips.
Key cryptocurrencies:
- AVAX: Invested by Morgan and Grayscale.
- Link: Related to Trump, Grayscale, and Fidelity.
- Sui: A16z and Coinbase have invested.
- AAVE: Framework, ParaFi Capital, and a connection to Trump.
- ENA: BlackRock, Trump, and Dragonfly have participated.
- Pengu: 1KX and Shima Capital have investments.
- ONDO: BlackRock, Trump, and Morgan are involved.
- CRV: Multicoin Capital and BlackRock are listed.
- ZRO: A16z, Multicoin Capital, and CB have invested.
- PUFFER: Fidelity and Electric Capital are involved.
- VELO: BlackRock is involved. The offline meeting in Shenzhen on January 2nd and 3rd will provide valuable research information.