December 25th Daily Summary and Early Morning Thoughts:

Wednesday was indeed a nerve-wracking day, with Bitcoin fluctuating between the 97500-99000 range. The short position around 98000 from yesterday was partially closed after a retest in the afternoon, with half of it still held, bringing the average price close to around 98500. There were also operations during the day, but primarily focused on ultra-short-term trades, with small positions taken on both long and short sides, just a few hundred points of movement. I won't elaborate too much on this; for now, the price remains in high-level consolidation, and the outlook remains bearish as previously mentioned.

Firstly, from a technical perspective, it can be confirmed that the current market movement is merely a corrective rebound and not a reversal. The pressure at the 99500-100000 threshold is very clear, and the likelihood of a stable breakthrough in the short term is low. During the holiday, there hasn't been sustained capital inflow into the market; instead, funds are flowing out. From a macro perspective, there are still no conditions for a significant rise; the timing is simply not right. It has only been 5 days since the crash on the 20th, after completing a major rebound and then facing a secondary drop, followed by another rebound. The candlestick patterns are very standard, but the adjustment period is still insufficient, and the positions absorbed by the market makers and institutions are far from enough. Furthermore, with Christmas approaching and people in the U.S. on holiday, as well as institutions taking time off, the likelihood of a rally at this juncture is low. Even if there is a rally, it will likely be preceded by a drop of at least 3000-5000 points. The real activation point will be at least a few days at the end of the month or early January. So, until then, maintaining a short position remains the primary strategy. Of course, if one is trading ultra-short-term, it's a different story, as there will always be opportunities for both long and short positions; just manage your risk well.

On Wednesday midnight, continue to reference the short position at the recent high of 99500, targeting the short-term goal around the intraday low of 97000-97500. The swing target remains unchanged at 95000, followed by 92500. As for Ethereum, there are no changes; continue to short at the 3500-3550 range, with a short-term target of 3380 and a swing target of 3200 unchanged. $BTC #比特币战略储备