Recently, the USUAL token has become a hot topic in the market, with its total locked value (TVL) exceeding $1 billion, attracting widespread attention. However, amidst the hype, it is particularly important to calmly analyze the risks and potential of this asset.
TVL breaks $1 billion, why is the market cap lagging?
Currently, the market capitalization of USUAL is only about $600 million, while the rapid growth of TVL has resulted in a market value to TVL ratio (MVRV) of less than 0.6. This situation typically indicates that the market undervalues the project, but it is important to note that there may be structural issues behind this.
1. Insufficient liquidity: Although the amount locked is substantial, can the actual trading depth and activity in the market support long-term value growth?
2. High proportion of speculative funds: Some funds may be based more on short-term profit expectations rather than confidence in the project's long-term value.
From the data, USUAL's current price is about $1.36, which indeed shows some valuation upside compared to its locked scale. However, for those blindly bullish up to $10 or even higher, I believe there is a lack of sufficient logical support.
Behind the high growth: Is a potential ceiling already in sight?
If we assume that USUAL's future reasonable valuation is twice the TVL, which is about $2 billion, then the corresponding token price would be approximately $2. This prediction has considered the project's growth potential and the gradual increase in market recognition.
In the short term, the price of USUAL has already seen considerable growth:
Recently, the maximum increase has approached 8 times, with some early investors' costs as low as about $0.2.
If you enter above $1.5, the risk exposure is significantly increased for projects with a current low MVRV ratio.
Regarding the so-called guesses of '10 dollars' or '50 dollars'
Some people may claim that USUAL's market cap is extremely low, with vast growth potential, and hold very high expectations for its long-term development. But I must ask:
If they are so optimistic, why not choose to continue increasing their positions?
In fact, many big players or 'early participants' hold chips at extremely low costs, and their main goal is to create market sentiment to attract subsequent funds to take over. Under this logic, blindly chasing prices will only make one a 'high-position buyer.'
Personal opinion of the author.
As a rational investor, I would like to share a more objective view:
1. Position management: My full position cost is $0.36, and I partially locked in profits at around $1.5. When the price recently pulled back to $0.95, I re-entered, having locked in more than half of my profits, and the current price has brought me about 40% in floating profits. (When USUAL was around $1.5 and everyone believed it would continue to soar, I was already in the square telling everyone to lock in profits and wait for a pullback to re-enter at $1. I was criticized by many for selling too early, claiming there would be no chance to re-enter below $1, but the facts proved that I hit the target right on the mark.)
2. Risk assessment: I am not worried about a decline, but I hope it can continue to rise. Even so, I believe the long-term ceiling for USUAL might be around $2, and breaking through this price range will require stronger fundamental support.
3. Market strategy: For the current price, investors are advised to maintain a calm attitude; chasing prices at high levels is not advisable. On the contrary, if the price undergoes a significant adjustment, it may be a better entry point.
Final advice: Invest rationally and stay away from emotional trading.
The high volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market are well known; every hot topic may hide risks. Investment in USUAL needs to be based on a deep understanding of the project's fundamentals, not just chasing market sentiment.
While pursuing profits, please remember the basic principle of diversifying risks and controlling positions. Opportunities always exist, and the winners are often those calm and rational investors.
Remember that a qualified trader must always remain calm. When everyone is shouting that it will continue to soar, that's when you lock in profits and exit, then re-enter to profit again. Follow me to quickly transform from a novice to a qualified trader.