Banner cycles are a theory that states that the economy moves in waves, repeating ups and downs at regular intervals. It was created by farmer Samuel Banner in the 19th century, trying to predict the prices of pigs and iron. In the modern world, this theory is often dragged into the crypto space, saying that if Bitcoin grows every four years, then why not tie it to "magic" cycles?
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What are Benner cycles?
This is a set of patterns that supposedly explains when to wait:
Growth (time to buy);
Falling (time to panic);
A period of stagnation (time for reflection).
The main thesis: cycles repeat every 11 years with variations of 5.5 years. It's like a calendar for traders, only with a greater element of excitement.
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Do they apply to the crypto market?
At first glance, Banner might find common ground with crypto traders: both tend to look for patterns. But cryptocurrency is a completely different beast:
1. Volatility: While the economy is still somewhat predictable, Bitcoin lives by its own rules.
2. The scale of human hysteria: News, Elon Musk's tweets, or regulatory decisions can break any patterns.
3. Four-year halving cycles: Bitcoin has its own internal rhythm, and it is this rhythm that shapes the market's ups and downs.
Benner cycles are more suited to the traditional financial world, but there are points of contact. For example, if you look at them as a long-term forecasting tool, then some overlap is possible.
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What awaits us in 2025?
According to the Banner cycles, 2025 looks like a possible peak year. If you believe the patterns, this is a time for maximum optimism. Now let's translate this into crypto market language:
1. First half of the year:
The market is gradually warming up after the 2024 halving. Bitcoin and altcoins are slowly rising, attracting more and more newcomers who think they have time to "jump on the bandwagon."
2. Mid-2025:
FOMO (fear of missing out) is at its peak. Everyone is talking about a “new golden age of crypto” and even your grandma is asking how to download Binance. At this point, crypto prices could reach all-time highs.
3. End of 2025:
As always, at the end of any cycle, there is a feeling that "it's too good to be true." Institutionals start to "get out of the game," and the infamous "bear" returns to the market.
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Should we believe in the magic of cycles?
Banner cycles can be useful if you like conspiracy theories and want to justify your trading decisions. But let's be honest:
The crypto market is too young and dynamic for such predictions.
Instead of blindly believing in theories, it's better to keep a cool head, a balanced portfolio, and emotions under control.
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Final word
Banner cycles are more about thinking than a specific strategy. However, if you suddenly find yourself in the middle of a bull market in 2025, remember: the key is not only to get in on time, but also to get out on time. And don't forget to check if everyone else has gotten out before you.
