From recent price trends, the narrow range between 3480 and 3500 indicates that the market is in a wait-and-see state (i.e., both bulls and bears have temporarily reached a short-term balance). The previous rapid rise may have been due to concentrated capital inflow, followed by high-level consolidation showing weakening bullish strength. However, at this point, the price is above three moving averages, and the yellow 20 MA has crossed above the blue 60 MA and purple 120 MA, forming a bullish arrangement, which is bullish.
Technical indicator analysis:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Hourly level: MACD is below the zero axis, DIF (fast line) and DEA (slow line) are diverging downwards, indicating a risk of further price decline in the short term. Daily level: MACD shows a bearish trend, with DIF and DEA continuously negative and the gap widening, indicating overall market weakness.
Popular science: DIF and DEA are the core of MACD, their direction and position can reflect market trends; downward divergence indicates increased selling pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Hourly level: RSI is close to the neutral zone (54.73), indicating no obvious overbought or oversold signals in the short term. Daily level: RSI is 46.55, close to neutral but below 50, indicating slightly bearish market sentiment.
Popular science: RSI is usually measured from 0 to 100, with above 70 indicating overbought (price may correct) and below 30 indicating oversold (price may rebound).
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The current price is slightly above EMA20 (short-term moving average), but below EMA60 (medium-term moving average) and EMA120 (long-term moving average), indicating that the market still has certain support in the short term, but the medium to long-term trend is weak.
Popular science: EMA can respond to price changes more quickly, so EMA20 is often used for short-term signals, while EMA60 and EMA120 are used to confirm medium to long-term trends.
Volume interpretation:
Hourly level: Volume is stable, showing balanced inflow and outflow of funds in the short term, with no significant signs of intensifying bull-bear struggles. Daily level: Decreased volume reflects market hesitation, investors are waiting for clearer trend signals.
Popular science: Volume is an important indicator of market participation. Decreased volume is often accompanied by consolidation, while increased volume may lead to a trend breakout.
The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with short-term pullback risks, but there is still some support below. If subsequent volume significantly increases and indicators improve, the price may experience directional selection.
It is recommended to pay attention to the following points:
Key support level: 3480, if broken, further downward risk should be monitored.
Key resistance level: 3500, breaking through may open up new upward space.
Volume changes: If the volume increases while prices rise, bulls may regain dominance;
If volume decreases while prices fall, the adjustment may continue.
Medium to long-term trading: Buy heavily in spot before Trump’s previous high points to sell.
$ETH (spot)
Short-term trading: [Buy and sell points]
Buy point one: 3450 USDT (near previous low, EMA120 support)
Buy point two: 3400 USDT (integer support level, previous swing low)
Long position stop loss point: 3380 USDT (20 USDT below buy point two, to prevent false breakouts)
Short sell point one: 3550 USDT (previous high resistance level, integer level)
Short sell point two: 3600 USDT (integer level pressure, further upward space)
Short position stop loss point: 3625 USDT (25 USDT above sell point two, to prevent false breakouts)
$ETH (contract)