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Key support and resistance levels:

Resistances:

1. $0.4242 – $0.4620: zone EMA 20 and lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.

2. $0.4754: upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.

3. $0.4937 – $0.5100: significant level according to the volume profile.

4. $0.5331: EMA 50.

Supports:

1. $0.3933: current price, local demand zone.

2. $0.3866 – $0.4155: key Fibonacci retracement zone (0.705 – 0.79).

3. $0.3260 – $0.2630: strong support level according to horizontal volume profiles.

4. $0.2119: level 1.618 according to Fibonacci.

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Formation:

The price is in a descending triangle formation. A breakout above the triangle's upper boundary ($0.4242) with a close above will indicate the start of an upward impulse.

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Scenarios:

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Long scenario (60% probability):

• Conditions:

o Price breaks $0.4242 (EMA 20) and closes above $0.4620.

o RSI rises above 50, volumes start to increase.

• Entry points:

1. $0.3933 – $0.4242: entry on breakout of the triangle's upper boundary.

2. $0.4620 – $0.4754: entry after closing above the Ichimoku cloud.

• Targets:

0. $0.4851: first target (level 0.5 according to Fibonacci).

1. $0.5331 – $0.6549: key resistance zones.

2. $0.8655: long-term target.

• Stop-loss: Below $0.3866.

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Short scenario (40% probability):

• Conditions:

o Price does not break $0.4242 and falls below $0.3933.

o RSI drops below 45, volumes remain low.

• Entry points:

1. $0.4242 – $0.3933: rebound from EMA 20 resistance.

2. $0.3866 – $0.3260: entry on breakout of key support zones.

• Targets:

0. $0.3260: first target.

1. $0.2630: second target (volume level).

2. $0.2119: level 1.618 according to Fibonacci.

• Stop-loss: Above $0.4242.

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Probability ratios:

• Long scenario: 60% (if breaking $0.4242 and closing above $0.4620, growth is possible).

• Short scenario: 40% (if the price closes below $0.3933 with a possible move to $0.3260).

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Conclusions:

• Long scenario has priority if the price breaks $0.4242 and closes above $0.4620, with possible targets up to $0.8655.

• Short scenario should be considered if the price falls below $0.3933, with targets of $0.3260 and $0.2630. #AEVO/USDT