According to Deep Tide TechFlow news on December 25, a report by Jin Ten shows that many market indicators suggest Trump's new term will face a historically high-valued U.S. stock market. Data shows that the proportion of household stock allocation in the U.S. has risen from 48.3% at the beginning of 2024 to 51.8%. This indicator has the most significant predictive ability for four-year returns since 1952, and current data suggest that the actual annualized return rate of U.S. stocks from 2025 to 2029 may be -1.5%.
Despite the fact that the household stock allocation reached a historical high during the inauguration in 2020, the S&P 500 index still achieved an inflation-adjusted annual return of 9.3% (higher than the average level of 7.2% since 1952), but the current market situation has changed significantly. Multiple valuation indicators are now at over 90% of their historical distribution positions since 1950, 1970, and 2000, with some even reaching extreme values of 100%, suggesting that U.S. stock returns over the next four years may only keep pace with inflation. Trump will face significant challenges if he wants to maintain his tradition of using stock market performance as a political achievement.