The performance of Bitcoin during the Christmas and New Year holidays over the past five years shows that from December 20 to January 6, Bitcoin's volatility is significantly larger, but the actual rise and fall, except for 2020 which was particularly severe, has remained within 10% in other years.
In 80% of the years, the price performance of coins in the following two months has been quite good. If you narrow the buying timeframe to one week after New Year's Day, the possibility of making a profit is still 60%.
Observing the Nasdaq index performance over the past five years, there was significant volatility during the Christmas period, yet the overall rise and fall were not large. Thus, it can be inferred that after the holiday, U.S. stocks would not have a major negative impact on Bitcoin.
Although this round of the bull market is significantly influenced by BTC ETF inflows and outflows, the Nasdaq index did not show a significant decline during or after the Christmas period, which had little impact on crypto.
Bitwise's European research director Andre Dragosch stated that he has accurately predicted BTC positively for months, but after Bitcoin fell 8% last week, he warned that Bitcoin might decline further in the coming weeks.
Andre said: 'The macro situation is that the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma. Although it has cut interest rates three times since September, the financial environment continues to tighten.'
At the same time, according to Truflation's U.S. inflation indicator, the real-time indicator of consumer price inflation has accelerated to a new high in the past few months. Therefore, we are likely to see more pain in the coming weeks, but considering the continued tailwind from BTC supply shortages, this might be a buying opportunity.
About ETH
The market lacks obvious positive news to support Ethereum's continued rebound, investor sentiment is becoming conservative, and Ethereum's dominance rate is once again declining.
Since the launch of the Ethereum ETF in early summer 2024, this downward trend has gradually become apparent. Even though these funds attracted billions of dollars in inflows, they still failed to change the downward momentum.
For Ethereum investors, being fully invested may still require patience.
It is expected that Ethereum may welcome new upward opportunities in the first quarter of 2025, injecting confidence into the market and reversing the current sluggish state, especially since March will see an upgrade of Ethereum, meaning now until January might be a good opportunity to accumulate ETH.
When others panic, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I panic. You know this as soon as it is said, but if you cannot always act on it and keep following the crowd, swaying with the wind, how can you make money?
When trading, do not pursue perfection; the pursuit of perfection is a form of greed or even an extreme mindset.
Because of the pursuit of perfection, it is difficult to accept flaws, and one cannot endure even very small pullbacks. Trying to catch every fluctuation without missing any opportunities can lead to obsession with the market, even with altcoins; people really don't have the time to understand your altcoins.
You say $100,000 for Bitcoin is too expensive; I think it's perfectly normal. Good things are always expensive. The woman you like must be beautiful. If you have even a bit of courage like a devoted admirer, holding onto Bitcoin for a few years without selling wouldn’t leave you so anxious.
Give up the idea of getting rich quickly with contract altcoins; getting rich is gambling. Excessive gambling leads to high-frequency attention, ultimately resulting in extreme emotional fluctuations, making it hard to patiently wait for returns.
When investing, you must have a broad perspective to steadily walk each step during cycles, which also gives you a better chance to gain more. Do not reverse the priorities, speculate opportunistically, and lose yourself.