BlockBeats news, December 25, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio published a recent trading summary, stating that after perfectly going long on BTC from $102,000 to $107,000, I decided to transfer these profits to long positions in SOL and the SOL ecosystem. The entry point at that time offered a moderate risk-reward ratio (r/r), specifically: going long on SOL at $220, WIF at $2.75, and BONK at $0.037. This was based on SOL's strong performance on the low time frame (LTF) and the confidence gained from previous successful trades. When the BTC market began to reverse at $108k, I was not pleased with the trading performance of some meme coins, so I decisively closed out the underperforming assets, accepting an acceptable loss (which was the right move). However, I did not close out the SOL position; instead, I chose to increase my position from $20 million to $30 million. This led to the formation of the first mistake.
Error 1 Not cutting losses in time: Typically, one of my strengths is being able to exit positions promptly when they start to lose strength to avoid larger losses. However, this time, I chose not to cut losses when SOL fell to $215, even though I believed the market would experience downward fluctuations around the FOMC meeting. My bias overwhelmed the logic, and the psychological excuse I used to comfort myself was that $200 was a key support level for SOL, and it was very close; I didn't want to be 'liquidated' by the market for trying to catch a 5% move. When SOL dropped to the $200 support level, I further increased my position from $30 million to $45 million, reasoning that the risk-reward ratio at the high time frame (HTF) support was optimal. I don't think this was a mistake, but it did make an already complex situation more dangerous.
Error 2 Ignoring stop-loss points: When SOL broke below $200, the clear action should have been to close the position as planned. However, I chose to hold on because the position size had become so large that if I closed it at that time, it could trigger a waterfall decline in SOL's price down to $190, damaging the entire chart. At this point, I began to harbor 'hopium', thinking 'maybe there will be a wick that dips below support and then recovers'. This state of mind was definitely a red warning signal, and I should have paid special attention. Additionally, after the price dropped below $200, I leveraged up in the $187 to $193 range, expanding my position size to nearly $60 million (with total account leverage reaching 1.2x). This was clearly the wrong move, but as you can see, the mistakes kept piling up. Fortunately, there was no complete 'black swan' event, and I did not face greater penalties as a result. What I did right: When my unrealized loss reached $7-8 million, I decided 'enough is enough' and decisively cut losses. I closed 70% of my position at $193, which freed up cash for re-entering at the final bottom, including ETH, ENA, PEPE, and WIF, and I nearly caught the lowest point. After the trade: Ultimately, the actual profit and loss (rPNL) for this trade was a loss of $6.2 million, about -10.2%. Since then, I have executed 13 trades, all of which were profitable, essentially making up for this loss. I believe this is a good example of how a trade can go wrong from the very beginning, and then the errors keep compounding, potentially leading to a very bad situation, especially when the 'sunk cost fallacy' takes over. Fortunately, I was able to break free from this mindset, allowing me to trade calmly and accurately at the market bottom. This was my largest single-position loss in this account, and I will remember this lesson for a long time.
Merry Christmas, friends.