As 2025 approaches, rather than predicting market trends, let's propose a black swan event prediction: What kind of black swan events might occur next year?

Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:

As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.

The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.