Bitcoin has skyrocketed in 2024, soaring 145% year-to-date, recently breaking through the psychological barrier of $106,000.
This volatile cryptocurrency has always been a polarizing asset, but with the Trump administration's rise to power and the Bitcoin ETF launched earlier this year, it seems more and more investors are beginning to embrace Bitcoin.
But not everyone is optimistic about Bitcoin; some Wall Street figures still believe Bitcoin will see a correction in 2025. Here are the biggest bear and bull cases for the token next year.
BCA Research: Bitcoin will fall to $45,000*
BCA Research's Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin predicts that Bitcoin will crash in 2025.
Due to the anticipated economic recession, Berezin is generally pessimistic about risk assets for next year. He stated that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin's price would be around $45,000, a 57% drop from the current level.
The pessimistic Berezin stated that as investors seek safe-haven assets during economic downturns, gold will ultimately outperform Bitcoin in 2025.
At this point, he believes Bitcoin is not a store of value like gold, but merely a high-risk investment in technology stocks.
This strategist provided data showing a strong correlation between Bitcoin prices and ProShares UltraPro QQQ 3x Shares ETF.
This leveraged 3x ETF aims to track the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Since 2018, Bitcoin's price has been closely correlated with this fund, as both assets have seen their trading prices increase by about 650%.
Therefore, the tech stock crash in the bear market of 2025 will also trigger a significant drop in Bitcoin's price.
*Fundstrat: Bitcoin will reach $250,000 to $500,000*
Fundstrat's Tom Lee has a completely opposing view on Bitcoin, as he is very optimistic about its performance next year.
This strategist indicated that this cryptocurrency is expected to soar 140% in 2025, reaching $250,000. However, if the Trump administration establishes a national Bitcoin reserve, the cryptocurrency could surge to even higher levels.
According to Tom Lee, Bitcoin has two tailwinds in the new year.
The first is the price halving cycle of cryptocurrencies, where Bitcoin's price tends to be bullish in the year following a halving event.
The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, expected to happen every four years. The halving will reduce the number of Bitcoins miners receive for solving cryptocurrency problems by half, thereby limiting the supply of new cryptocurrencies entering the market. With a significant reduction in new supply, if demand remains constant or increases, prices should rise.
Tom Lee stated in last week's outlook report that the second factor favoring Bitcoin in 2025 is 'friendlier government regulation.'
President-elect Donald Trump is viewed as a close ally in the cryptocurrency space, and his recent government appointee, Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman, has been welcomed by the market.
If the U.S. announces and implements a strategic reserve, Bitcoin may have more upside potential in 2025.
"Our Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell believes that by 2025, the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve will provide an additional $500,000 upside for Bitcoin," Tom Lee stated in a report on Monday.
This target represents an increase of 381% from the current level.
#Finally, Tom Lee emphasized that a recent white paper from BlackRock suggests investors allocate 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin. This recommendation could trigger further institutional adoption of Bitcoin and stimulate demand for this cryptocurrency, thereby helping to boost Bitcoin's price.#比特币市场波动观察