Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping about 15% from the historic high of $108,300, with prices falling to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin's price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a consolidation phase.
The recent decline has severely impacted altcoins, with many tokens' prices even falling to levels before October, erasing the "Trump effect" increase following Trump's election as US president. Nevertheless, as the Christmas holiday approaches, many believe the "Christmas crash" will further exacerbate the market's downward trend.
However, as 2025 approaches, a series of favorable factors such as Trump's inauguration and the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan are about to unfold, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to welcome a new round of "dawn moments."
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the perspectives of industry insiders, the buying trends of institutions, and some on-chain activities in this article, providing readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.
Overview of industry perspectives: Most are bullish, a few are bearish.
From the perspective of mainstream industry figures, most believe the current BTC market pullback is only temporary, mainly due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000, while altcoin holders are in a state of eager selling, thus causing market fluctuations downward. With 2024 coming to an end and 2025 approaching, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs.
CZ: Waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to set new highs.
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that as new headlines emerge, Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC's "collapse" fell from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines to report.
Cathie Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional demand.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin "is becoming scarcer than gold," and she previously predicted that by 2030, BTC prices will exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand: ETF, MicroStrategy, and others.
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETF, MicroStrategy, and the government itself potentially becoming a Bitcoin buyer. He added, "Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, not enough supply, so I believe prices will be higher in 2025."
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a recent price target of $125,000.
After BTC recently fell below the $91,000 mark, it rebounded strongly over the weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC, stating it may continue to rise in the future. Additionally, other on-chain indicators also suggest a good momentum for BTC in the future. In a recent analysis, Brandt stated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis.
However, he also cited technical charts warning that BTC prices may pull back to $76,614 in an upward trend, adding that "this is not a prediction," highlighting the risks present in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect "possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties." Additionally, his recent price target for BTC is $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the "end of the bull market"; the market still has ample fuel.
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis believes, based on historical data analysis, that the current pullback in the crypto market is not the "end of the bull market." He stated: "In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the following 23 days (an increase of 136%). A similar situation is happening now; Bitcoin has fallen by 13% after a significant rise in Q4. It does not mean this is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have ample fuel."
Analysts: This Bitcoin pullback is highly correlated with the sell-off by Coinbase since October 26.
The recent drop in Bitcoin's price marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly transitioned from extremely bullish to uncertain and cautious. As altcoins have been severely impacted, Bitcoin's pullback has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent upward trend.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off by Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increase in selling pressure clearly indicates a shift in the market from a bullish market to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark for support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by mid-2025 and will maintain a mild pullback trend.
Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, the downtrend for Bitcoin in 2025 will be brief, predicting the best-case scenario is that Bitcoin's price will double by June 2025, with a minimum estimate of reaching $145,000 mid-2025, potentially rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions.
Analysts say: "We believe that any adjustments in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional capital inflows." They point out that while volatility is expected for Bitcoin in Q1 2025, the "broader trend" suggests that its price will continue to rise, thanks to ongoing inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing global and institutional adoption.
CryptoQuant CEO: This is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for individual tokens.
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has started to rebound. Currently, only a few altcoins attract new liquidity, and the scale of fund rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes this is not a traditional altcoin season, but rather an independent market for individual outperforming tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot assets; the market may enter a longer period of consolidation.
Renowned trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating: "Altcoins (Alts) quickly fell back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors feel extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase or quickly drop in a short time."
Analysts: Seeing a significant pullback in a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical."
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a historic high of over $108,000, and the recent decline in the cryptocurrency market has a greater impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of US ETFs directly investing in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting a shift in market sentiment.
Strahinja Savic, Head of Data and Analysis at FRNT Financial, stated that seeing such significant pullbacks in a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical," while QCP Capital noted in a report that the fundamental reason for the sell-off is the market's "overly optimistic" positions.
Strong buying: Continuous inflow into BTC ETF, with both countries and enterprises following suit.
From the perspective of market fundamental buying, we are still in the "strike zone" of institutional trading, with funds from the US BTC ETF, El Salvador, US-listed companies, and Japanese companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the holding cost is not significantly different from the BTC spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, governments, and MSTR currently hold 31% of all Bitcoins, double that of last year.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on Bitcoin holdings pie chart, stating that ETFs, governments, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoins, up from 14% last year.
BTC Holdings Pie Chart Information.
In the 50th week, the trading volume of the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $26 billion, with an inflow of $17.5 billion so far in Q4.
According to Trader T's monitoring, the US spot Bitcoin ETF reported a net inflow of $463 million in the 50th week, with a trading volume of $26 billion. Additionally:
So far in Q4, the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs has reached $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock IBIT inflow of $1.452 billion;
Other ETFs have outflows of $989 million.
El Salvador increases Bitcoin purchase efforts, mid-term goal to add 20,000 BTC.
On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Max Keiser, senior Bitcoin advisor to the president of El Salvador, revealed: "President Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchase rate, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 BTC." On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address increased its holdings by about 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.4 billion credit line, but there were conditions to "reduce Bitcoin risk"; when asked about Bitcoin's legal tender status in El Salvador, IMF spokesperson Kozak stated that Bitcoin's use will be voluntary.
In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of the Bitcoin office in El Salvador, clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" its Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will still be the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reported that the "1 BTC per day" purchase plan will continue.
In addition, the country has made additional purchases, increasing by 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
The Australian Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holds 272 BTC.
As of December 19, the Australian Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately $44.3454 million.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to accumulate.
Statistics: At least 10 companies are currently adopting or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
According to statistics, at least 10 companies are currently adopting or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: Currently holds 294 BTC;
Pickup solution provider Worksport: The company's board approved an initial purchase of $5 million in BTC and XRP;
Amazon: Shareholders propose that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: Currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: Currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: Currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: Currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: Currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: Currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: Currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed data stating that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased about $263 million of its existing convertible notes due in 2026, expecting to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19, becoming the fourth listed company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increases its holdings by 619.7 BTC.
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced it had increased its holdings by an additional 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increase purchase statement.
Glassnode: The bullish trend has seen a decrease in the severity of Bitcoin's pullbacks, with most corrections around 25%.
Glassnode previously stated, "Interestingly, as the market has grown, the severity of Bitcoin's pullbacks during the bullish trend has decreased. The deepest pullback in this cycle was -32% (on August 5, 2024), while most corrections have only dropped about 25% from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and growing institutional interest."
Glassnode leans towards a decreasing level of pullback.
On-chain activities: Growth in wallet addresses, awakening of dormant addresses, and exit of long-term holders.
On-chain activities show a polarization phenomenon: on one hand, as the time scale lengthens, the number of addresses holding mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, starting at least from 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for over 10 years are awakening, with many long-term BTC holders gradually exiting.
In the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH has grown by 27% and 47%, respectively.
Santiment stated that in the past two years, the number of cryptocurrency holders has increased significantly. Below are the non-empty wallet counts for the top four cryptocurrencies by market cap:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analysts: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month.
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges.
Since September, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million BTC.
In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders had been selling large amounts of Bitcoin, reducing their total holdings from about 14.2 million in mid-September to about 13.2 million. Bitcoin's current trading price is down 13% from the historical high of about $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the US election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth-largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently, multiple addresses holding over $20 million were activated after being dormant for many years.
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since breaking above $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at block height 875,560 on the Bitcoin network, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC came from 2015 when BTC was trading at $290. Then, after 43 blocks, several wallets from 2017 began to activate, transferring small amounts of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This model of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, worth $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet that had been dormant for 12 years was activated and transferred 104.99 BTC, at that time worth only $11, totaling $1,200. Today, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from the old P2PKH address to the new P2WPKH address.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges: Coinbase's bleeding accelerates.
Coinglass data shows that the current Coinbase Pro Bitcoin wallet balance is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; inflows of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, outflows of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with inflows of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, inflows of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
