Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Hao Fangzhou
In previous year-end reviews, I sought breadth and comprehensiveness, listing many sectors and unfolding them according to data, events, trends, and directions, considering how objective neutrality buried some of the author's thoughts. Coupled with the daily work being obsessed with short-term hotspots, there have been few opportunities to think about the industry over an extended period. So this year, I changed my approach—directly extracting the most important people, events, and things in the Web3 field for 2024 from my subjective impressions. The lack of remarkable ones will not be mentioned, while the memorable ones will be briefly described; then, using the refined observations and expressions to summarize, serving as a mental organization and cognitive refinement for myself. If it can resonate or provide references for readers, that would be fortunate.
Let's start from this image.
2024 Crypto Market Structure
From the perspective of asset fluctuations, the biggest highlights in 2024 will belong to BTC and Meme coins; in the middle, there are indeed some new and old projects that I have invested personal feelings in, but honestly, they are tasteless to eat, regrettable to abandon, and will be cut off in 2025.
BTC: New highs, new cycles, new attributes, new narratives
In 2024, the US elections and crypto policies will leverage each other. Trump's saying 'designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the US' elevates Bitcoin as the unrivaled resource in the new international financial cold war, pushing traditional financial institutions that were once indecisive to advance into crypto.
Old money large funds entering the market have long been one of the narratives for BTC price increases, or at least one of the tendons that stabilize consensus. This year's overwhelming good news has injected confidence into BTC's value, but it has also set a ceiling on future upward momentum and growth rates.
With the increase in institutional holdings, the expansion of ETF and other CeFi product lines, and the following trend of Macrostrategy's 'stock-coin linkage' play, the correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets like US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar index has thickened. Its asset attributes will irreversibly shift towards 'digital universe version of gold', de-punkification. Coupled with the price of coins entering the upper vacuum zone, profit expectations become elusive, and the estimation of demand saturation, past cycle theories, and pricing models will all fail.
I assert that this bull market is the last major slope cycle for BTC. After this, its explosiveness, volatility, and degree of retracement will not be what they were in the past.
So, is Crypto investment no longer sexy? No, Alpha has just detached from BTC.
Policy coins, business coins: Which mainstream clones can withstand the spillover?
If BTC's price trend aligns with the later period of gold, then ETH resembles a foundational tech stock as stable as the old X. (Ethereum's style of talking less about price and more about value is very much like a tech stock, isn't it?)
2024 will also be a big year for crypto ETFs. The policy warm winds first blow towards BTC and ETH, and the interests of institutions have been clarified: they need to be proven for a long time for 'product technology' safety and stability; have a 'business' fundamental to rely on, applicable to traditional benchmarking laws and valuation methods; trading volume is small yet has scale, with a widely distributed holding structure and clear cost... XRP, SOL, DeFi leaders, and other cyclical relics from the coin circle are ready to step forward.
Since the water source is above, considering the long-term and prudent regulation, as well as the slow progress in institutional productization, the growth of such targets is generally limited. Feedback to investor perception indicates that although old projects are desperately trying to save face, clustering to announce progress, the old highs are too high, with historical burdens and heavy vehicles, making it unlike the bountiful years of the past, where the overwhelming rise of clone seasons and the surge of mainstream coins drew attention.
What about new projects that issue tokens taking advantage of this bull market?
New structural opportunities: BTCFi, regional regulatory dividends
This year, looking solely at prices, indeed the clones haven't kept up much, but fortunately, price and value have always proved each other. The price performance of BTC and the new Meme kings makes Mass Adoption a matter of course, and the issuance of USDT and the number of active wallets have both reached new highs, with old money and new retail investors rushing in.
As the pace (speed of investment decision-making) increases, a dislocation occurs between funds (prices) and cognition (value), creating a crack (the time difference of value return), and light (structural opportunities) shines in.
This section will first discuss from the perspective of the industry and practitioners (the last section will discuss the big opportunities for investors from external and internal perspectives):
1. Broadly speaking, BTCFi is divided into the CeFi direction—represented by MSTR, Coinbase, Bitdeer, ETF—and the native direction—assets like RUNE, ORDI, etc., L2, sidechains, lightning channels for expansion, and further staking, lending, etc. in DeFi.
The former can be said to have shone brightly; the latter has not fully taken advantage of the wind, which I regret.
'The Bitcoin ecosystem' combines the strongest benefits of the main network token and inherits the development experience of past predecessors, standing on the shoulders of giants and still playing with the stool. You say the Western and Chinese protocol assets do not take over from each other, you say the $1 billion market cap belly-cutting bet is still not 'doing anything', you say exchanges and investment institutions have deeply laid out, and soaring is just ahead...
I say that the fundamental problem of product-market mismatch is not well resolved: BTC has entered the era of large holders, with big funds having their safety margins and procedural norms, this is the current demand-side situation; the developer-style on-chain operations in BTC's native world, carrying large institutional funds with small liquidity pools, trading precious large pies for 'high-potential' derivative assets, entrusting safety to pirated VMs, this is the supply-side fantasy.
BTC ecological projects do not need to rush to replicate the playbook of other ecosystems from the airdrop golden age. Understand the audience, switch the storytelling target, and cater to institutional needs; there are also opportunities to sit at the table and share the cake with BTC CeFi.
2. Clarification of regulation, strategic reserve of BTC, expansion of original financial channels to include crypto categories, policy promises during the election period... These 'pioneering moves' from the US are quickly followed by imitation. Relevant proposals from Russian lawmakers follow, South Korea postpones the collection of virtual asset taxes, and Hong Kong is active in statements and actions regarding exchange licenses, stablecoins, etc.... It can be seen that no one wants to be ridiculed from both sides like the German government, which imagined itself as the 'mid-year selling protagonist'.
The attitude towards the crypto industry, in terms of the Dao—lies in the foresight and mindset of policymakers; in terms of the law—led by large traditional financial institutions and tech companies; in terms of art—through RWA and CeFi products; in terms of tools—specific crypto derivatives like stablecoins, ETPs, indexes.
The last three have different backgrounds, providing opportunities for corresponding practitioners.
The biggest Alpha: Meme, new token distribution mechanisms
Next, I'll take a different direction to talk about the annual representative from the 'bottom up'—Meme.
Void? Abstract? On the edge? Secondary creation? Memes are simply directly facing the core spirit of New Money (which I call future money). The fun and excitement of Web3 this year are mostly provided by Memes.
Memes carry the foundation of 'flexible trading attention economy', which also leads to a memory of 'buying new, not old' operations. Funds quickly shift with attention, consensus on old projects disperses easily, and new projects become increasingly short-lived. This is an inevitable result of the lowered threshold for asset issuance. Just as TikTok has lowered the threshold for content creation, the massive amount of content dilutes the rate of high-quality content, raising the selection and retention of quality content.
In the early stages of Meme's strength, the high leverage and the resulting wealth effect led both buyers and sellers to feel an illusion, with investors misjudging and eager token issuers thinking, 'Can I win too?'
Unfortunately, in this fast-paced era, the window for newcomers (retail investors) is short. As Memes become specialized on both sides, the success-failure ratio of investors and issuers quickly returns to the mean. The uneven and opaque levels of tools, narratives, and cognitive levels will force the casino when weariness and envy arise, and Memes will welcome a turning point at the tail of the economic 'adverse selection'.
Interestingly, 'posting a Meme' is drawing the 'serious projects' and 'serious entrepreneurs' around me into the waters.
Here is a small story: Last month, British singer Lily Allen, with nearly 8 million listeners on Spotify, joined Onlyfans in October, opening up photos of her feet for her 1,000 fans, saying, 'The music platform exploits severely, selling feet can earn more than streaming media, this is something the entire music industry needs to reflect on... Don't hate the player, hate the game.'
Should the Web3 industry reflect? Or embrace the void 'Why serious'?
Perhaps attributing the rise of Memes doesn't require forcibly elevating or associating them with culture; even discussing emotions alone can explain something. Do you still remember the market sentiment before Memes, heavily focused on 'airdrops'? In the first half of the year, there was a lot of discussion in the circle about VC tokens and listing controversies, institutions and KOLs unlocking dark rooms underwater, feeling powerless under the scoring PUA, and dissatisfaction with token distribution. The prosperity of Memes and the more democratic token distribution form precisely hit the emotional group of those who have not gained benefits. The iteration of token distribution mechanisms is also one of the main lines of evolution in the coin circle.
From such Alpha, gain inspiration and reflection. Exposing problems is always the first step to solving them, and value dilution is also the prelude to value discovery.
Three 'products' that amazed me in 2024
Having talked enough in vertical fields, this section will be more relaxed, reflecting on three products that surprised me: Polymarket, Macrostrategy, and pump.fun, corresponding to the business, BTCFi, and Meme categories mentioned earlier, as well as small, medium, and large opportunities in this year's venture capital direction.
Polymarket: When the picture is right, the wind is here
The large Ethereum system, V value-based (making meaningful applications) star;
It is difficult for the 128 million wallets holding Ethereum not to primarily demand financial needs;
Friends who understand gambling know how genuine the demand is here;
Choosing between heads or tails and doing multiple-choice questions is much easier than writing a logically coherent investment memo;
Caught up with the Olympics and the US elections...
The above combinations are unlikely to break out.
Macrostrategy: CeFi leader, extraordinary strategy
I once thought that the only ones capable of triggering a nuclear-level industry disaster were the three gods of ancient Greece who controlled public chains, exchanges, and stablecoins—Ethereum, Binance, and USDT. This year, congratulations to BTC for also having heavyweight guests.
Given that future BTC holdings are likely to concentrate, and that whale entities are exposed to similar market risks (dollar economy) below. In 2025, I will gradually reduce my BTC holdings and closely observe the indicators of Macrostrategy model collapse.
pump.fun: Demand-driven, sustained income
Meme × infrastructure tools, is there potential? pump.fun tells you with over $100 million in monthly revenue.
pump.fun, the TikTok of the crypto world, supports the issuance of assets and stories, has business, has products, has sustainable protocol income capabilities, and has referable valuation standards. How can this lose?
Let's post the initial image again
Looking back at this year, on one end of the barbell are innovative assets maturing, powered by native supporting infrastructure. Before it completely turns into a game for robots, I still have the opportunity to participate; on the other end, core assets are mainstreaming, driven by external policy boosts and traditional institutional allocations. I will seize the timing to shift BTC to surrounding spillover sectors.
In terms of assets, the direct beneficiaries are BTC, and Meme; in terms of model innovation, the top prize goes to Macrostrategy and pump.fun.
In addition, my favorites Ethena, Pendle, Jupiter, Hyperliquid, OKX Web3 Wallet, etc., have also performed brilliantly this year. To avoid 'saying everything feels like saying nothing', this article won't elaborate.
2025, cherish the brief good years
Technology and finance have come to today, major innovations usually come from A standing on B's shoulders, while small innovations are combinations like A×B, B×C... This kind of mixing and exhaustive exploration is very suitable for AI's 'associative ability'. The next two years will be a big year for AI, and Web3 innovation and investment might as well combine themes.
Envisioning 2025, the biggest externalities roughly fall on AI permeating all aspects of Web3 tools and services; the biggest internal surprises may be MemeFi; as for those homogeneous clones in the middle (like the same business model replicated on different underlayers, with little difference), I genuinely lack imagination, but they may indeed be favored by traditional funds and grow alongside CeFi.
The boss occasionally reminds me: having a sense of repetition towards things is a form of arrogant fatigue, also a loss of sharpness. I think this may depend on how we choose to view the spiraling industry—when I place myself in the perspective of the old and look down, seeing these concentric circles, ultimately they are just dust under the historical wheel; if I position myself to the side, wow, the industry is accumulating users (retail investors), raising technology (applications)!
I am proud that Crypto is still the fastest-growing industry, without exception. No matter how you look at it, the more important thing is to act. Diving in, riding the waves, how joyful it is.
Writing to the end, I set a new year resolution for myself: to cleanse outdated experiences, update investment methods, establish a learning system for new assets, shift positions and concentrate firepower, striving to upgrade my pile of 'SB money' wallets to Smart Money addresses.
Related Reading
Odaily Planet Daily released the 'FAT' trend list in September, featuring 'Top Ten Turning Point Events of the Year' and 'Top Ten Narrative Trends of the Year'.
