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Weekly Review
From December 16 to December 23 this week, the Rock Candy Orange reached a high near $108,353 and a low close to $92,232, with a fluctuation range of about 15%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 95,000, which will provide some support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.8 million coins;
90000-100000 approximately 1.85 million coins;
The probability of not breaking below 87,000 to 91,000 in the short term is 80%;
Among them, the probability of not breaking above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 70%.
Important news aspect
Economic News Aspect
November PCE price index year-on-year 2.4%, lower than the expected value of 2.50%, higher than the previous value of 2.30%;
November core PCE price index year-on-year 2.8%, lower than expected 2.90%, same as previous value 2.80%.
November PCE price index month-on-month 0.1%, November core PCE price index month-on-month 0.1%, both lower than previous and expected values.
December one-year inflation rate expected initial value 2.8%, lower than previous value 2.90%.
In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but reduced the expected number of cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2. US stock indices, gold, and cryptocurrency markets generally fell.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said: It is frustrating that progress in reducing inflation is slower than expected. When considering rate cuts, we focus on the progress of inflation;
The PCE inflation favored by the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cooled across the board. These data should help alleviate the concerns of Federal Reserve members about inflation prospects. The market continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January and increase bets on rate cuts in March.
Citi stated: Due to the 0.1% month-on-month increase in the core PCE inflation in November, price increases are slowing down. The final rate cut by the Federal Reserve may exceed current expectations. Job stagnation and slowing inflation are sufficient reasons for rate cuts in every meeting beyond January.
In terms of crypto ecosystem news
IMF's Kozak said in response to a question about BTC's monetary status in El Salvador: The use of BTC in El Salvador will be voluntary, and the agreement reached between the IMF and El Salvador aims to reduce potential BTC risks based on the IMF policy framework.
In the past year, the ETH foundation has sold 4,466 ETH (approximately 12.6 million USD) in 32 transactions.
On December 20, El Salvador increased its BTC reserves by purchasing 11 BTC worth 1.07 million USD.
Analyst Adam of Greekslive stated that after BTC's failure to reach 110,000 this week, it entered a pullback, clearing the aggressive leveraged long positions that stabilized above 100,000. Meanwhile, the adjustment of altcoins has lasted nearly a month. Based on past bull market experience, a significant pullback in BTC will usher in an altcoin season, but the intensity of BTC's pullback is still uncertain.
On December 20, CZ posted: "Waiting for new headlines, BTC hits a new high." Previously, on December 17, 2020, CZ had posted: "Waiting for new headlines: BTC from 101,000 to 85,000, save this post."
K33 Research Report: In 2024, institutional investors collectively increased their holdings of 859,454 BTC, accounting for 4.3% of the total circulating supply, equivalent to 8 years of BTC issuance.
Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Changes/Neutral State
Medium-term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations will be faced
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term Insights
Large Exchange Net Position
US ETF Reserve Net Position
Aversion Sentiment
(See below Large Exchange Net Position)
From the exchange perspective, large on-chain net transfers have begun to decrease and are starting to flow in. The market has given some preliminary pressure, but it is not significant.
(See below US ETF Reserve Net Position)
The willingness to purchase US cryptocurrency ETFs has also begun to decline, and external funding has also begun to weaken.
The market currently appears to be somewhat sluggish.
(See below Aversion Sentiment)
In such a sluggish market, two instances of genuine aversion sentiment occurred, leading to two losses and sell-offs.
If the market continues to stagnate in the future, it will generate a languid sentiment to digest potential issues, possibly needing to trigger several more times before reaching a general emotional bottom for the market.
The short-term operational rules in the market are closely related to sentiment.
Medium-term Exploration
New Address Growth Status
Stablecoin Total Supply Net Position
Network Sentiment Positivity
Liquidity Supply Amount
USDC Purchasing Power Composite Score
Whale Composite Score
(See below New Address Growth Status)
The growth status of new addresses has shown relatively stagnant growth over the past year.
The increase in address users may represent the application and popularity of blockchain technology. If the non-zero address increase of BTC is not high, it may indicate that the increase over the past year came from the inflow of market investment funds rather than user growth.
The potential hidden danger this may bring is that BTC will lean more towards being a financial verification tool for capital rather than the popularization and application of blockchain technology.
(See below Stablecoin Total Supply Net Position)
The net position of stablecoin total supply has slowly declined in the last 14 days, indicating that there may be some signs of slowing capital inflow in the market.
The capital inflow in the market may face certain bottlenecks and may need some time to ease consensus.
(See below Network Sentiment Positivity)
As network sentiment continues to decline, the market's sentiment may be in a phase of repair and consolidation.
(See below Liquidity Supply Amount)
The liquidity supply has recently shown a significant stagnation in growth, which may weaken the liquidity in the market.
(See below USDC Purchasing Power Composite Score)
USDC's purchasing power rating remains relatively high, indicating that the market's US market users still have a high willingness to participate.
(See below Whale Composite Score Model)
The rating status of whales has recently shown some changes, fluctuating between "Very High" and "High".
It is possible that whale users also have some divergence.
Short-term Observation
Derivatives Risk Coefficient
Options Intent Trading Ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Options Implied Volatility
Profit and Loss Transfer Amount
New Addresses and Active Addresses
Rock Candy Orange Exchange Net Position
Stepmother Exchange Net Position
High-weight selling pressure
Global Purchasing Power Status
Stablecoin Exchange Net Position
Off-chain Exchange Data
Derivatives Rating: Risk coefficient is in the neutral area, derivatives risk is moderate.
(See below Derivatives Risk Coefficient)
After more than a month, the risk coefficient has risen from the red zone to the neutral zone, indicating that the market's frenzy main rising wave has come to a pause.
(See below Options Intent Trading Ratio)
The proportion of put options is at a medium-high level, with trading volume at a median level.
(See below Derivatives Trading Volume)
Derivatives trading volume has fallen back to a low level again. For a short-term and bullish market, every drop to a low level indicates that the market is brewing the next fluctuation.
(See below Options Implied Volatility)
The implied volatility of options has not changed significantly.
Sentiment Status Rating: Neutral
(See below Profit and Loss Transfer Amount)
In the past two weeks, the judgment of market sentiment has been neutral, and this week remains neutral.
As mentioned in the previous two weekly reports, the market's positive sentiment blue line is like a wave, slightly lower each time, diverging from the price.
The current market has completed an initial pullback. This week, we will focus on whether there will be another panic selling of chips. The current panic sentiment orange line is still at a low level.
(See below New Addresses and Active Addresses)
New and active addresses are at a high level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of large outflow accumulation, while ETH has a small overall outflow accumulation.
(See below Rock Candy Orange Exchange Net Position)
BTC Exchange Net Position continues to experience large outflow accumulation.
(See below E-ta Exchange Net Position)
ETH has a small overall outflow.
(See below High-weight Selling Pressure)
The current high-weight selling pressure has eased.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global Purchasing Power is in a state of decline, and stablecoin purchasing power is the same as last week.
(See below Global Purchasing Power Status)
Global Purchasing Power is in a state of decline.
(See below USDT Exchange Net Position)
Stablecoin purchasing power is the same as last week
Off-chain trading data rating: there is a willingness to buy at 90,000; there is a willingness to sell at 100,000.
(See below Coinbase Off-chain Data)
There is a willingness to buy around the price range of 85,000 to 90,000;
(See below Binance Off-chain Data)
There is a willingness to buy around the price range of 85,000 to 95,000;
There is a willingness to sell near the price range of 100,000.
(See below Bitfinex Off-chain Data)
There is a willingness to buy around the price range of 85,000 to 90,000;
Weekly Summary:
News Summary:
From the current market news and the Federal Reserve's attitude, the probability of a rate cut in January is relatively low, but the possibility of a rate cut outside of January is not small, as the situation of PCE inflation favored by the Federal Reserve has relatively improved.
The Federal Reserve's rate cut rhythm is roughly characterized as decisive in the early stage, hesitant in the mid-stage, possibly accelerating in the later stage, and ultimately likely returning to a long-term interest rate of around 3.25%.
The next year will still be relatively loose, with ample capital inflow and not much possibility of a bear market.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
Large Exchange Net Position shows that current purchasing willingness has decreased, and there is very slight selling pressure;
US ETF inflows have also started to decline, and US funding support has also decreased simultaneously;
During this pullback and sideways movement, two instances of extreme aversion sentiment occurred.
Market Positioning:
The market may still need some time to digest pressure and adjust, and may need to trigger more aversion sentiment to reach the emotional bottom.
On-chain Medium-term Exploration:
The number of new addresses has lacked growth over the past year and is relatively stagnant;
The growth rate of new funds has slowed down;
Network sentiment is in a phase of consolidation and repair;
Liquidity has weakened;
USDC users still have some willingness to participate in the market;
Whales have recently shown some divergence.
Market Positioning:
Divergence, Adjustment
The market has shown some divergence recently, but no worse situations have occurred so far, and it may also be adjusting.
On-chain Short-term Observation:
Risk coefficient is in the neutral area, risk is moderate.
The number of new active addresses is at a high level, indicating high market activity.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
Overall, BTC is in a state of large outflow from exchanges, while ETH has a small overall outflow.
Global Purchasing Power is in a state of decline, and stablecoin purchasing power is the same as last week.
Off-chain trading data shows a willingness to buy at 90,000; a willingness to sell at 100,000.
The probability of not breaking below 87,000 to 91,000 in the short term is 80%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 100,000 to 105,000 in the short term is 70%.
Market Positioning:
After two consecutive weeks of declining market sentiment, the market finally experienced a pullback.
This week's market sentiment remains neutral. It is expected that this week's price performance mainly depends on whether there is a panic sell-off. If not, it will fluctuate more around the current price; if a panic sell-off occurs, the price may touch the short-term holder cost line near 85K.
Risk Warning:
The above is all market discussion and exploration and does not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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