I have been in the crypto space for almost a year, and my account has a floating loss of 15,000 USDT...
Currently only trading spot, not touching contracts anymore. The money lost before was all from contracts. If spot trading is not done well, don't even talk about contracts.
Still have 2200 USDT left. Let's start a record from today. The following statements are purely from a novice's perspective, written for my own reference, and just for fun for everyone.
1. Let's first talk about the current market perspective.
1. The crypto market is currently in the mid-stage of a bull market, still in an adjustment phase, and there will be another wave of increase later.
2. From the fear-greed index, although the market is currently not as enthusiastic as early December, it is still in a greedy cycle. At this stage, after the Federal Reserve has taken a hawkish stance, the market has not yet reached a state of panic, and the chip washing in the early stage of the bull market is not complete, further washing is still needed.
3. From CZ's statements, I boldly predict that meme coins will complete their final harvest in this cycle, and then will be replaced by other altcoins.
4. A significant rise in AI coins may need to be accompanied by practical applications of the next generation, like ChatGPT, to trigger an explosion. If the rise of AI coins in the later stage of the bull market is sudden, it needs to be approached with caution.
2. Perspective on the current BTC trend.
Although Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be rising today, let’s stick to what was mentioned above:
Currently, BTC is in an adjustment phase, the market is still not in a state of panic, and the dealers have not yet gathered enough positions, further washing is needed.
So when can we consider a thorough washout? I think it needs a rapid drop with a spike, making retail investors in the downturn believe the bull market is over. When would be a suitable moment for this? I will boldly predict the following script.
1. On December 26, this week’s unemployment numbers will be released, further confirming the Federal Reserve's plan not to cut interest rates next month, leading to a further decline in BTC and initial panic in the market.
2. On January 10, the U.S. unemployment rate for December and the non-farm payroll number for December again confirm that there will be no interest rate cuts, and the market begins to panic severely.
3. On January 15, the non-seasonally adjusted CPI preliminarily favors interest rate cuts, and the market begins to warm up.
4. Trump takes office on January 20, the market begins to FOMO, BTC rises, driving the altcoin season.
5. On January 29, U.S. interest rates are cut as expected, and the market reaches the peak of FOMO.
3. Combining the current BTC market
The 4-hour level is suppressed by the 200 EMA, and the 12-hour level candlesticks are suppressed by the 60 EMA. The trend of Bitcoin is extremely weak, indicating that another drop is brewing.
Trading volume is sluggish, quietly declining, institutions are offloading, but greedy sentiment keeps some retail investors buying in here, making today's market seem okay. However, if you look at the situation of altcoins, most are at a declining support level. Considering the positions of BTC and ETH, it's very dangerous.
Recently, no positive news can be released, but a lot of negative news can be casually put out. The subjective news is also bearish.
Above all, Bitcoin looks bearish in the short term, but during a bull market, never short it! Otherwise, the consequences are dire, folks. A lesson of blood and tears.
Based on the above information, here comes the operational strategy (I personally will buy altcoins to recover my losses, as Bitcoin's spot returns too slowly... big funds shouldn't follow my lead):
1. To prevent the above judgment from being erroneous, if the market produces a super incredible epic positive news, leading to a rapid rise, find an altcoin you like at this position, and first open a 2-layer position to prevent missing out. This way, if you lose 20%, you only lose 4% of the total position, which is not painful.
2. Patiently wait for the opportunity to increase positions, you can place orders in advance, in short, be patient. Add 2 layers of position when Bitcoin is at 90,000, and 3 layers at 87,000. If it drops further, it might go to 70,000. At that point, just go all in, brothers. The bull market is definitely still on! Above.