$COW

I will analyze in detail COW/USDT based on technical data and cash flow:

1. Current status analysis:

- Current price: 0.7463 USDT (-9.42%)

- The price has seen strong correction from the peak of 0.9740

- EMA (7,25,99) indicates a short-term downtrend

- RSI(6) = 39.60 is in the low neutral zone

- MACD is giving negative signals

- Trading volume is gradually decreasing, indicating selling pressure is weakening

- OBV is in a sideways trend, with no clear accumulation signals yet

2. Cash flow analysis:

- The Long/Short ratio is leaning towards Short (54.57% Short vs 45.43% Long)

- The cash flow into large positions over the past 5 days is negative (-9.26M), indicating strong selling pressure

- Margin debt price shows signs of stabilizing, reducing selling pressure

3. Possible scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Positive (30% probability):

- Price recovers to the range of 0.80-0.85

- Condition: Strong volume increase accompanied by OBV break up

- Target: 0.80 -> 0.85 -> 0.90

- Stop loss: 0.70

Scenario 2 - Neutral (45% probability):

- Price fluctuates sideways in the range of 0.70-0.80

- Accumulation and balance before a new trend

- Support zone: 0.70-0.72

- Resistance zone: 0.78-0.80

Scenario 3 - Negative (25% probability):

- Price continues to adjust to the range of 0.65-0.68

- Test the old bottom of 0.5780

- Stop loss: 0.55

4. Recommendations:

Short term:

- Wait for clear recovery signals before opening buy positions

- Can trade within a range with small positions

- Set a tight stop loss to protect capital

Medium term:

- Monitor changes in cash flow and volume

- Wait for accumulation and market balance signals

- Manage risk with a minimum R:R ratio of 1:2

Note: The market is in a phase of strong volatility, investors need to be cautious and prioritize capital preservation.