$COW
I will analyze in detail COW/USDT based on technical data and cash flow:
1. Current status analysis:
- Current price: 0.7463 USDT (-9.42%)
- The price has seen strong correction from the peak of 0.9740
- EMA (7,25,99) indicates a short-term downtrend
- RSI(6) = 39.60 is in the low neutral zone
- MACD is giving negative signals
- Trading volume is gradually decreasing, indicating selling pressure is weakening
- OBV is in a sideways trend, with no clear accumulation signals yet
2. Cash flow analysis:
- The Long/Short ratio is leaning towards Short (54.57% Short vs 45.43% Long)
- The cash flow into large positions over the past 5 days is negative (-9.26M), indicating strong selling pressure
- Margin debt price shows signs of stabilizing, reducing selling pressure
3. Possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Positive (30% probability):
- Price recovers to the range of 0.80-0.85
- Condition: Strong volume increase accompanied by OBV break up
- Target: 0.80 -> 0.85 -> 0.90
- Stop loss: 0.70
Scenario 2 - Neutral (45% probability):
- Price fluctuates sideways in the range of 0.70-0.80
- Accumulation and balance before a new trend
- Support zone: 0.70-0.72
- Resistance zone: 0.78-0.80
Scenario 3 - Negative (25% probability):
- Price continues to adjust to the range of 0.65-0.68
- Test the old bottom of 0.5780
- Stop loss: 0.55
4. Recommendations:
Short term:
- Wait for clear recovery signals before opening buy positions
- Can trade within a range with small positions
- Set a tight stop loss to protect capital
Medium term:
- Monitor changes in cash flow and volume
- Wait for accumulation and market balance signals
- Manage risk with a minimum R:R ratio of 1:2
Note: The market is in a phase of strong volatility, investors need to be cautious and prioritize capital preservation.