The drop on Friday combined with the V-recovery basically dominated the weekend's market. It can be seen that as the double holiday approaches, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has clearly weakened, so this week’s market should mainly be volatile, and the profitability effect will be much less than before.
On December 20, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 277 million, while Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 75.1 million. Even the 1BIT from Beichai is flowing out, which is definitely a key turning point. A very critical turning point, very critical.
After the Ethereum Foundation, the second top escape master has appeared, Sun Yuchen returned 39,999 ETH (143 million USD) from Lido Finance and ether.f, and then deposited all of it into HTX. Since November 10, as the ETH price started to rise, he has deposited 108,919 ETH (400 million USD) into HTX at an average price of 3,674 GBP. Currently, he still has 42,904 ETH (139 million USD) being unstaked from Lido, which may soon be deposited into HTX. Back then, Sun was also a master who escaped with more than 4,500 ETH. Although he still has a lot in hand, this wave should clearly indicate some signs of a top.
This Friday is the annual options expiration day, as well as the expiration day for contracts and other derivatives. With the arrival of Christmas, liquidity is expected to be under pressure. This week should still be primarily focused on downward fluctuations. Currently, the biggest pain point for annual options is 84,000. Based on current data, if this Friday is below 90,000 USD, the holders of call options will win big. Of course, options can no longer influence the price changes of Bitcoin, but they may suppress its upward momentum; call buyers shouldn't expect to make too much profit.
Market interpretation
Last week’s prediction was basically correct, except that the bottom is not the lowest. Reviewing last week's view, the bottom was at 94,000, with a rebound to 99,000. Currently, this wave has been executed perfectly, and as mentioned last week, there may still be new lows this week, mainly because ETFs might continue to escape. However, Bitcoin shouldn’t drop too much; this morning, the 4H level had already pointed to a W-bottom, but it doesn’t seem very established now and still needs observation. We also need to see if there will be an ETF drop after the US stock market opens tonight.
The second coin is really weak, the exchange rate isn't rebounding, it’s stabilized. Moreover, last Friday's spike should have led to on-chain liquidation. It’s difficult; you may not believe Sun’s calls, but there’s something behind Sun’s top escape!
SOL’s lowest point is 176, I think buying below 185 can be held. SOL's daily line is already oversold. This price point is very cost-effective, and if it drops further it will be off the screen, you understand?
In the altcoin sector:
In the altcoin sector, there was a slight rebound in MEME over the weekend, but I feel MEME is still not in position. To buy MEME, one must keep a broad perspective. For example, if PNUT's high point is 2.2, then I think 0.22 might be a reasonable bottom-buying point. Similar bottom-buying strategies might actually lead to successful purchases.
This drop has once again highlighted several strong cryptocurrencies, particularly those supported by Trump’s team. Aside from LINK being slightly weaker, the others are still quite strong.
Speaking of ZEN, I feel that ZEN’s growth potential is not very large, purely my personal subjective opinion. That’s it; it’s different from XRP, as it doesn’t have that kind of major positive logic support, and cannot be compared.
