The drop on Friday + V almost covered the weekend's market; it can be seen that with the double holidays approaching, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has clearly weakened, so the market this week should mainly be volatile, and the profit-making effect will be much less than before.
On December 20, Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 277 million, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 75.1 million. This time even Beichai's 1BIT has been flowing out, which is definitely a key turning point. A very critical turning point, very critical.
After the Ethereum Foundation, the second master of market timing has appeared. Sun Yuchen returned 39,999 ETH (143 million USD) from Lido Finance and ether.f, and then deposited all of it into HTX. Since November 10, as the ETH price started to rise, he has deposited 108,919 ETH (400 million USD) into HTX at an average price of £3,674. Currently, he still has 42,904 ETH (139 million USD) being unstaked from Lido, which may soon be deposited into HTX. Sun was also a master of escaping the market at over 4500 ETH back in the day. Although he still holds a lot, this wave should clearly indicate some signs of a peak.
This Friday is the annual options expiration day, as well as the expiration day for contracts and other derivatives. With Christmas approaching and liquidity conditions tightening, this week should mainly see a volatile downward trend. Currently, the biggest pain point for annual options is 84,000, and based on current data, if this Friday is below 90,000 USD, the holders of call options will win big. Of course, options can no longer influence the price changes of Bitcoin; currently, it may only suppress its upward momentum, and call option buyers should not make too much profit.
Market Interpretation
Last week's prediction was basically correct, just that the bottom was not the lowest. Looking back at last week's view, I suggested buying the dip at 94,000 and expecting a rebound to 99,000. Currently, this wave has been executed very perfectly, and as I mentioned last week, there might still be new lows this week, the reason being that ETFs may continue to flee. However, Bitcoin is unlikely to drop too much; this morning, the 4H level had pointed to a W bottom, but it seems not very valid now and needs further observation. We also need to see if there will be an ETF correction after the US stock market opens tonight.
The second coin is indeed weak, the exchange rate is not rebounding, standing firm, and last Friday's spike should have caused on-chain liquidation; it’s tough. You may not believe in Sun's trading calls, but Sun's market timing has something behind it!
The lowest for SOL is 176, and I think buying the dip below 185 can hold. The daily line for SOL has already been oversold. This price point has a good cost-performance ratio, and if it drops further, it will be out of the screen, you understand?
Regarding altcoins:
Regarding altcoins, MEME had a small rebound over the weekend, but I feel MEME is still not in place. If you want to buy MEME, you must be more open-minded. For example, if PNUT's high point is at 2.2, then I think 0.22 might be a reasonable buying point. A buying strategy like this might help you catch the bottom.
This drop still highlighted several strong coins, particularly those backed by Trump's team. Except for LINK, which is slightly weaker, the others are relatively strong.
Regarding ZEN, I feel that ZEN's growth potential is not very large, purely my personal subjective opinion. That's it, it's not like XRP, which has that kind of major favorable logic supporting it; they are not comparable.
