$DOGE
Understand the thoughts of the big players
If you were Musk, holding 10 billion Dogecoin in spot, plus 1 billion in cash to trade, and you were busy helping Trump achieve his political goals, wanting to be America's new founding father.
So why are you cashing out Dogecoin? To put it bluntly, it's to ensure that your core assets, like Tesla and SpaceX stocks, are safe while helping Trump. Dogecoin is marginal for you, and at critical moments, you might have to sacrifice it for your core assets. Especially during a crisis, you might heavily sell off Dogecoin, but don't worry, after selling, you can buy back in, consuming all liquidity in both directions. Because if your company crashes, Dogecoin won't mean much.
The real value of Dogecoin
To put it simply, the value of Dogecoin is tied to companies like Tesla, SpaceX, and PayPal, with a lot of leverage added. Just like before the ABS bubble in 2008, when you buy Dogecoin, you are essentially buying Tesla's debt, except Musk doesn't have to pay you back. The price of Dogecoin fluctuates around this value, so if you understand Tesla, you will also be able to play with Dogecoin.
The crypto space is quite interesting right now: Bitcoin has become a meme of US stocks, almost becoming a meme of precious metals like gold; Dogecoin, on the other hand, has become a meme of Tesla.
How to operate
If you want to buy coins, consider buying some Bitcoin when you are bullish on the Dow and Nasdaq, and buy some Dogecoin when you are bullish on Tesla.
Risk warning
Although it has retraced by 10% now, the Dow, Nasdaq, and Tesla are still at high levels. There are many bearish people and potential black swan events, such as wars, tariffs, deportations, non-farm payrolls, and Powell's speech in December, etc. Tesla has doubled, and Dogecoin has tripled. If Tesla drops 30%, Dogecoin will have to be halved by 60%, dropping from 1.6 to 0.4; Musk won't give you a heads-up.
How to sell coins
Bitcoin's rise or fall has nothing to do with Dogecoin, but during Bitcoin's bear market, Dogecoin will also bear. Because a bear market in the coin circle means no liquidity and no retail investors; there's nothing. So it's not necessary to buy during a bull market, but it's essential to sell at the end of the bull market, especially at the tail end of Bitcoin's bull market. The Bitcoin bull market essentially means increased global liquidity, but countries won't inject liquidity when the dollar is raising interest rates, so it can also be seen as a result of the dollar's interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. The end of the bull market is when monetary policy is about to shift, such as signals of interest rate hikes, balance sheet reductions, or stops on rate cuts. Next, there could be a big double top. The most misleading time is during the altcoin season at the tail end of Bitcoin's bull market; at that time, the mid-altcoin season is the last escape opportunity for Dogecoin. The risk for Dogecoin is already high at the start of the altcoin season because it is related to Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as US stocks and global liquidity.
Give a specific time example
For example, if it’s the end of 2024, we know there will be moderate rate cuts and balance sheet reductions in 2025, but we haven't seen any information about balance sheet expansions yet. So the altcoin season might not arrive until the third or fourth quarter of 2025, or even later. That means the escape opportunity for Dogecoin will be after the second half of 2025. In other words, we are currently at the bottom area; rising from 0.1 to 0.4 is the bottom, and dropping back to 0.2 is still the bottom.
In the upcoming layout direction, I will guide everyone to aim for the lucrative opportunities in altcoins, especially those with great potential. An expected growth space of over 10 times is definitely achievable. If you want to make big money in a bull market, like and leave a comment, and I will help you lay out the entire bull market!
