According to asset management firm VanEck, the United States could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years if it establishes a reserve fund of 1 million Bitcoin, based on the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis.
VanEck estimates that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to $42.3 million by 2049. Meanwhile, the national debt of the United States is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5% from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion over the same period.
"The reserve fund could account for about 35% of the national debt by 2049, offsetting approximately $42 trillion in liabilities," said Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz in a report on December 20.
Estimated national debt of the United States increases alongside the growth of Bitcoin reserves from 2025 to 2049 | Source: VanEck
This 'optimistic' scenario assumes a 25% CAGR for Bitcoin starting from a price of $200,000 by 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $100,726 and will need to double to reach the starting price noted by VanEck.
A Bitcoin price increase to $42.3 million means it represents about 18% of the world's financial assets — a significant increase from around 0.22% in the current $900 trillion market.
Estimated national debt of the United States, Bitcoin reserves, and BTC value at a 25% CAGR | Source: VanEck
The incoming administration of Donald Trump is considering a Bitcoin reserve fund, driving prices up to over six figures. However, Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by both the Senate and House of Representatives.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers stated earlier this month that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office to designate Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the United States could repurpose 198,100 Bitcoin acquired from asset seizures while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoin could be funded through emergency support functions, selling a portion of the country's $455 billion gold reserves to buy Bitcoin, or a combination of both. Both methods do not require printing more money or using taxpayer funds.
According to Sigel and Frankovitz, the acceptance of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the United States will also strengthen the estimated CAGR of this Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF issuance unit.
The member countries of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) can also influence Bitcoin prices and make it increasingly used as a currency. Sigel explains:
"It is very likely that Bitcoin will increasingly be accepted as a global payment method, especially in countries that want to avoid the surge in USD sanctions that have been imposed."
https://tapchibitcoin.io/vaneck-quy-du-tru-bitcoin-hoa-ky-co-the-giam-35-no-vao-2049.html