Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
As 2024 approaches, this year is destined to leave behind many important moments. In the uncertain cryptocurrency industry, there are surprises, hopeful aspirations, and astonishing transformations.
At the beginning of this year, the highly anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved. Just as the public thought the Ethereum spot ETF was progressing slowly, the SEC's attitude suddenly changed. Following this, as the U.S. election approached, the prediction market Polymarket became widely quoted in reports due to its data changes, becoming one of the few standout crypto applications this year. Binance founder and CEO Zhao Changpeng was also officially released after being sentenced to three months in prison at the end of September.
As we enter the fourth quarter, pro-crypto Trump is expected to win the next U.S. presidential election, and under Musk's plan suggestions, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has made Dogecoin, which has long been dormant, dance again. The Dogecoin craze has spurred explosive growth in many memes. Solana has become the king of meme chains, with the total market value of meme coins on it briefly exceeding $15 billion. Meanwhile, the current SEC chair, who has been criticized by the industry, is also expected to leave upon Trump's official inauguration, giving the crypto industry a sigh of relief. Bitcoin has also been continuously rising amid fluctuations, eventually breaking through the $100,000 mark for the first time on December 5.
One, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs approved - Wall Street's new darling.
The highly anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF began to gain attention in the industry since the end of 2023. On January 10 of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the official approval of the first batch of ETFs that use Bitcoin as part of their underlying assets in history, allowing these ETFs to be publicly traded starting January 11, 2024 (midnight Beijing time, January 11, 2024).
The approved spot Bitcoin ETF issuers include Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, iShares, Valkyrie, Ark 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity, and Franklin, totaling 11 institutions. This decision marks a historic step for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem and indicates that the digital asset market may stand at a new historical starting point.
As of December 9, the total net inflow for Bitcoin has risen to $33.43 billion, and data shows no signs of slowing down.
Behind the continuous record-breaking data is Bitcoin increasingly becoming a symbol of mainstream assets. The purchasing power of institutional and retail investors has been released due to its spot ETF, laying the groundwork for the rise in Bitcoin prices.
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, market investors naturally shifted their focus to Ethereum. However, due to the delay in news, some people did not hold out much hope. On May 14, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that he does not expect the ETF to be approved before the end of 2025. Meanwhile, bettors on the on-chain prediction market Polymarket believed that the probability of the SEC approving the ETF before May 31 was 14%.
The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF came faster than expected. Just 10 days later, on May 24, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved by the SEC. The SEC approved the listing plans for spot Ethereum ETFs from the New York Stock Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe), and Nasdaq, including eight spot Ethereum ETF applications from firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity.
Unlike the Bitcoin spot ETF, the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF coincided with a period of lackluster market performance, with data showing poor performance, even with daily net outflows exceeding net inflows for an extended period. By early November, its net inflows significantly exceeded net outflows, and market capital began to flood in.
As of December 9, the total cumulative net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs rose to $1.41 billion.
Two, Polymarket breaks out - the most accurate polling platform.
With the hot market and the excitement surrounding the U.S. elections, Polymarket successfully rose to prominence as the hottest breakout crypto application by betting on events. In June of this year, its trading volume reached $109 million, setting a historical high, with monthly active users reaching 29,200, also setting a historical high.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, in July, August, September, and October, Polymarket's trading volume on its platform set historical highs each month. Discussions about whether Biden would step down and the winning probabilities between Trump and Harris pushed platform data to new heights. Figures such as Musk and CNN often reference its data when discussing the election.
In October this year, Trump's probability of winning exceeded 60%, and by November 6, his probability surged above 88%. After the official announcement of the election results, the accuracy of his data predictions was praised by market participants, stating 'the stakes with real money often reflect the market's views better.'
Prediction markets are often more accurate than polls, media, and expert predictions. In addition to the election winner Trump, a French whale betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket made a profit of $47.8 million. This 'whale' is a French billionaire who has served as a trader in several banks. This summer, he started using his mathematical expertise to analyze U.S. polls, and ultimately gained fame with this bet.
In November, the trading volume on the Polymarket platform reached $2.577 billion, setting a historical high, with the number of active users reaching 293,705 and the number of new accounts reaching 339,531, also setting a historical high.
Three, Zhao Changpeng sentenced to four months in prison - 161 letters of support changing the judgment.
Binance founder Zhao Changpeng was officially released from prison on September 29 this year. Since the end of 2023, Zhao has not been allowed to hold any positions, and on November 22, he appeared in a Seattle court. On the same day, Reuters cited sources saying that Binance's fine was $4.368 billion, setting a record for the highest fines paid in the cryptocurrency industry. Court records show that Binance faces three criminal charges, including conducting unauthorized fund transfer operations, conspiracy charges, and violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
As the founder of Binance, Zhao Changpeng also could not escape legal sanctions. Zhao pleaded guilty to charges of money laundering and paid a $50 million fine. After that, he was allowed to be released on bail of $175 million and was briefly allowed to return to the UAE during the bail period. However, as the case progressed, U.S. courts repeatedly overturned previous decisions, prohibiting outbound travel.
In April 2024, U.S. prosecutors officially filed criminal charges against Zhao Changpeng, recommending a 36-month prison sentence. Prosecutors pointed out that Zhao's Binance platform had serious compliance issues, failing to report suspicious transactions related to terrorist organizations, and supporting the sale of child sexual abuse materials and receiving ransomware payments. Prosecutors believe these actions severely violated U.S. anti-money laundering regulations and must be punished severely.
On May 1, Zhao Changpeng's criminal trial was confirmed, and it is evident that 161 letters of support played a significant role in the judgment outcome, ultimately resulting in a sentence of 4 months in prison.
After Zhao Changpeng's release from prison, he stated in an interview that he spent at least half of his time on the digital education platform Giggle Academy, and believes this project is very interesting and impactful.
Four, Trump wins - the first 'crypto' president.
After Trump was shot before the campaign, a photo of him raising his fist went viral globally. Perhaps it was a case of 'surviving great adversity leading to great fortune.' On November 6, Beijing time, Trump officially defeated Harris and won the U.S. presidential election. Trump presented himself with a crypto-friendly stance before the campaign, expressing a series of views, such as firing the current SEC chair and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
After the successful campaign, Trump continued to take action, nominating five cryptocurrency players as new government minister candidates. Additionally, he plans to expand the CFTC's regulatory powers and clarify the responsibilities and boundaries with the SEC. The candidate for the new SEC chair is still being finalized.
For a long time, U.S. regulatory policies have been criticized by the market for their severity. The CFTC and SEC have taken multiple enforcement actions over the past few years, which have shaken market confidence. Trump's official inauguration and the nomination of new government ministers have left the market eagerly anticipating.
Bitcoin also surged after Trump's election and first broke through the $100,000 mark in early December. The new cabinet selections and expectations for relaxed regulations also spurred a revival in DeFi, causing various U.S.-based public chains, DeFi, and RWA to rise as well.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated earlier this month, 'In the past 30 days, Coinbase's market value has increased by about $30 billion, and XRP's market value has increased by about $100 billion. The shift from regulatory resistance to regulatory support in the U.S. is one of the largest and most important structural catalysts we see in the crypto space. Its impact has only just begun.'
Five, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established - a victory for Dogecoin.
Musk's Department of Government Efficiency plan was conceived even before Trump's election. This initiative, co-launched by him and former President Donald Trump, aims to conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the federal government and propose suggestions to reduce waste, fraud, and unnecessary expenditures.
In September this year, Trump officially stated during a speech at the New York Economic Club that if elected president, he would collaborate with Musk to create a Department of Government Efficiency. Therefore, this document's statement is just a formal announcement that was bound to happen.
Trump has high expectations for it, stating: it could become the 'Manhattan Project' of our era. Republican politicians have long dreamed of achieving the goal of 'DOGE.' To drive this drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside the government and work with the White House and the Office of Management and Budget to push for large-scale structural reforms, creating an unprecedented entrepreneurial government.
The final statement also indicated that 'their work will be completed no later than July 4, 2026, bringing a smaller, more efficient, and less bureaucratic government, which will be a perfect gift for America on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.'
The English abbreviation for the Department of Government Efficiency is D.O.G.E, which is no coincidence. Its inspiration comes from the Dogecoin community. In August this year, during a Twitter interaction, Musk called the name perfect.
Dogecoin also surged under the wave of the Department of Government Efficiency, climbing to a peak of around $0.48 since September, an increase of nearly six times.
Six, HBO documentary (Digital Currency: The Bitcoin Mystery) released - Who is Satoshi Nakamoto.
The HBO documentary (Digital Currency: The Bitcoin Mystery) premiered on October 8. This video reveals the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. Before this, potential candidates for Satoshi Nakamoto's true identity included Len Sassaman, Nick Szabo, and Adam Back.
The documentary identifies Satoshi Nakamoto as Bitcoin developer Peter Todd, who stated: 'Incorrectly publicly announcing that an ordinary person is actually exceptionally wealthy can expose them to threats such as robbery and kidnapping. This issue is not only foolish but also dangerous. Satoshi Nakamoto clearly does not want to be found for a reason, and everyone should not help those trying to find Satoshi Nakamoto.'
Although the documentary identifies Satoshi Nakamoto as Todd, he personally denies it, yet it has sparked considerable discussion.
On December 16, after Bitcoin broke through $106,000, Satoshi Nakamoto became the 16th richest person, with personal wealth exceeding $100 billion.
Seven, SEC Chair Gary Gensler resigns - dawn is near.
On November 22, according to a statement released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whose term was originally set to end in June 2026, will resign early on January 20, 2025.
Since the FTX incident, the SEC has tightened regulations on the cryptocurrency industry again and initiated a series of high-profile lawsuits, with Gary Gensler believing that most cryptocurrencies are securities, aiming to promote compliance through a series of enforcement actions.
He has repeatedly pointed out publicly that cryptocurrencies are rife with fraud, scams, bankruptcies, and money laundering. On the other hand, during his tenure, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were successively approved.
Most industry professionals often hold a critical attitude toward Gary, while after Trump's election, trust in the SEC Chairperson also garnered market attention. In early December, Trump nominated Paul Atkins for the SEC Chair position, but he was unwilling to accept the post. Although Coinbase CEO commented that Paul would be an excellent choice for the SEC, the position remains undecided.
Eight, Bitcoin first breaks $100,000 - creating history.
On December 5, Bitcoin finally broke through the $100,000 mark after consolidating above $90,000. This was the first time Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 since its inception in 2009, with a total market value exceeding $2 trillion, making it one of the top seven assets globally. Throughout previous bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin has remained resilient, ranking first in the market value of crypto assets.
As crypto assets continue to spread globally driven by the blockchain wave, and as more financial institutions, sovereign countries, and regions recognize their value, the price and market value of Bitcoin are also continuously expanding. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz remarked on the price breaking $100,000, stating that a Bitcoin buying frenzy is sweeping across the globe, making it one of the first global assets.
Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to receive record net inflows, combined with the pro-crypto Trump soon to take office, Bitcoin may continue to lead the bullish wave in the cryptocurrency market.
Nine, MicroStrategy included in Nasdaq 100 Index - the crypto version of Nvidia.
On December 14, Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) announced the results of the annual restructuring of the Nasdaq 100 Index® (Nasdaq: NDX®), which will take effect before the market opens on Monday, December 23, 2024. MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ: MSTR) will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index.
The Nasdaq-100 Index is a stock index launched by the Nasdaq stock exchange, consisting of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. This index reflects the overall market performance of these companies and is one of the important indices that global investors pay close attention to. In addition to the aforementioned conditions, there are also corresponding requirements for market capitalization, stock liquidity, popularity, and company financial profitability for selection into the Nasdaq 100 Index.
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has been positioning BTC as its primary reserve asset. With MicroStrategy's aggressive buying, the strength of Bitcoin in the new cycle has propelled its stock price upwards. In January 2023, MSTR's stock price was only $150, while in March 2024, it surged to a high of $1999.99, with a market value in the hundreds of billions, resulting in a stock price return rate exceeding 1000% in just over a year.
As of December 8 this year, data shows that MicroStrategy holds a total of 423,650 Bitcoins (accounting for 2.017% of the total Bitcoin supply), with a total purchase cost of approximately $25.6 billion and an average purchase price of about $60,324.
For the cryptocurrency industry, the influence of the Nasdaq 100 may also encourage more companies to follow MicroStrategy's example and join the ranks of Bitcoin investors. As more institutional investors enter the cryptocurrency market, the market demand for Bitcoin may further grow, driving up BTC prices.
Ten, Stablecoin Market Value Hits Historic High - Mass Adoption
On December 9, the total market value of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion, setting a historic high. The market value of stablecoins has steadily risen since the beginning of 2024, following a decline after reaching around $186 billion in May 2022, with continuous capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market.
In the cryptocurrency industry alone, stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and USDE have provided the fuel for market price increases. Currently, USDT accounts for nearly 70%, with a market value exceeding $14.057 billion, and USDC has a market value exceeding $4.211 billion. The emerging stablecoin representative USDE has a market value exceeding $5.87 billion in just a few months.
Stablecoins offer lower fees, greater competition among payment service providers, and wider accessibility. By reducing transaction costs to nearly zero, stablecoins can help businesses eliminate the friction caused by existing payment methods. The adoption of stablecoins will begin with those businesses most affected by current payment methods, and this process will disrupt the entire payment industry. Currently, giants like Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal have all entered the stablecoin payment sector.
